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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (11879)	4/23/1999 2:54:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, When I look at the long term chart for the 30yr we are currently hitting a resistance area on the charts. Looking at the last three months of data it actually appears or let me say that prices have actually positioned themselves for a move to the UPSIDE not downside. Now granted that pattern does not have to play out in the direction. I am sure all of us have been blindsided by a chart pattern that has moved contrary to what might be considered normal. But yet when I look at the Utilities and I see the precarious position they are in and the pattern that has developed I believe they are more inclined to break out. Which will obviously call into question that pattern that I am seeing for interest rates. Let me just say that a breakdown in rates would take us back to at least the 5% level. A move up in rates would take us to the 6 perhaps 6 1/4 level. Where at that point we would run into some serious resistance that takes me back to 1987. So I do not see a run away rate environment. Of course I believe that a move to six would cause some nasty gyrations in the markets. After which we will see a huge buying opportunity. Time will tell. SO