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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TST who wrote (19186)	4/23/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Everyone...Haven't been around here since the wild spike days of last summer. Dumb question... Once there's a spiderweb of fat pipe into the home will there be any alternative to RDRAM for serious surfers? Remember it's always darkest before dawn. Take a good long look at a chart of QCOM. RMBS might well go lower..much lower..but then:-) MileHigh posted this already but here it is again for those who missed it. Maybe some part applies: Philip Fisher, "Common Stocks Uncommon Profits". These quotes all come from the chapter entitled “When to Buy”. "These companies are usually working in one way on the very frontiers of scientific technology. They are developing various new products or processes from the library through the pilot plant to the early stages of commercial production. All of this costs money in varying amounts. All of it is a drain on other profits of the business. Even in the early stage of commercial production the extra sales expense involved in building sufficient volume for a new product to furnish the desired margin of profit is such that the out of pocket losses at this stage of development may be greater than they were during the pilot plant period……………………………As word gets out about a spectacular new product in the lab of a well run company, eager buyers bid up the price of that companies shares. When word comes of a successful pilot plant operation, the shares go still higher. Few think of the old analogy that running a pilot plant is like driving an automobile over a winding country road at 10 miles per hour. Running a commercial plant is like driving on that same road at 100 miles per hour. Then when month after month difficulties crop up in getting the commercial plant started, those unexpected expenses cause per share earnings to dip noticeably. Word spreads that the plant is in trouble. Nobody can guarantee when, if ever, the problems will be solved. The former eager buyers of the stock become discouraged sellers. Down goes the price of the stock. The longer the shakedown lasts the more the quotations sag. At last comes the good news that the plant is finally running smoothly. A two day rally occurs in the price of the stock. However, in the following quarter when special sales expenses have caused a further sag in net income, the stock falls to the lowest price in years. Word passes all through the financial community that the management has blundered. AT THIS POINT THE STOCK MIGHT WELL PROVE A SENSATIONAL BUY…Once the extra sales effort has produced enough volume to make the first production scale plant pay, normal sales effort is frequently enough to continue the upward movement of the sales curve for many years. Since the same techniques are used, the placing in operation of a second, third, fourth, and fifth plant can nearly always be done without the delays and special expenses that occurred during the prolonged shakedown period of the first plant. By the time plant number Five is running at capacity, the company has grown so big and so prosperous that the whole cycle can be repeated on another brand new product without the same drain on earnings percentage wise or the same downward effect on the price of the companies shares. The investor has acquired at the right time an investment which can grow for him for many years." DMG PS...neither long nor short