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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (57184)	4/25/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

BGR: With respect to 50 times book stocks: They always self-destruct and fall to more appropriate levels. Very few stocks ever get to this level, and when they do, they rarely go much higher. Thus, I see Dell as an excellent short that has little upside risk and plenty of downside potential. That is an excellent combination for a Vaderian. I also do not see Dell as a "manufacturing powerhouse". Plugging a few components into a motherboard is no big deal to me, and most involved players have long since adapted well to the BTO reality. The "local cloners" do exactly what Dell does, (but on a smaller scale) and they are less expensive, provide a shorter wait (like a day) and are nearby if problems occur. I see Dell as an excellent marketing organization, and have always given them high marks for this. Dell HAD an excellent niche, selling large-lot shipments to government and to business, but now everybody is crowding in and the game has become price-related. Also, both those sectors have cut back purchases dramatically. In a general sense, I see the whole industry in serious trouble. This slowdown has been underway for well over two years, and it is accelerating. Things will get much worse before they get better. With the PC/semi stocks in an orbit that is unrelated to their current or future prospects, I am comfortable shorting them. Also working in Darth's favour is the fact that the institutions have finally recognized the generic problems and are trying to quietly exit. Most will not make it of course, but when the pros are selling to the amateurs, I prefer to be doing the same thing. (g) Finally, we have found a way to track Dell's activity in an amateurish sort of way. Our little tracker has been accurate so far. Right now, it indicates that Dell's sales are slowing. Best, Earlie