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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11914)	4/23/1999 6:45:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>>an improvement in the a/d-line would induce complacency among analysts<< Reminds me of the question "is the glass half full or half empty?" I was driving home and was thinking about what else, the market, when it occurred to me, is the A/D really that good? Over the last year, 71%, I think was the figure we used, of all stocks were down significantly. There were only a few generals leading the charge up. These generals just got whacked Monday and some of the beaten down non-players of the last rally went up. Are these laggards above their old highs still today? I really don't know myself but the few hundred stocks I chart show me that they aren't anywhere near those old highs. Now we have many of the generals still off from their highs of the last few weeks yet the DOW is in record territory. Why?... How?... The broadening out of more stocks added the fuel but the market is still not even compared to the healthier rallies of old yet the analysts are bullish and I was also until this dawned on me tonight. I will have to review some of my other indicator charts I rarely have time to watch close. The DOW just feels too high for the prices of the stocks I watch. Maybe the biggest stocks aren't being pumped because it was too obvious but now they are pumping the second or third layer using less money to do so. Just an idea. SO - >>If the bears turn out to be right I do believe the vast majority would have made the correct call.<< Had to sneak in we are too bearish here again, you tryin' to pick a fight? <g> I don't feel we are bearish but we do tend to highlight potential troublespots along the way. Like Don with his broker friends, they catch the 25 point move up over the month. He catches the 9 up, 4 down, 10 up, 5 down, 15 up, 5 down, 5 up. Who got more points? Extra credit, who sleeps better at night knowing we are in a bubble as the dips occur? Good Luck, Lee

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11914)	4/23/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, todays Favors interview: Insana: our next guest thinks we are near a short term top followed by a sharp decline Insana: you keep moving the week out, 3-4 times now - maybe it's not ready to go down yet? Favors: we had a short term top within 1 day of April 9th Naz, spx, nya sold off - Dow didn't During decline market got internally even stronger a-d, high lows those usually peak before the Dow -------- as of 21st the 5 day moving sum of advancing volume, which normally peaks before Dow, was making recovery new highs along with Dow - it usually peaks before the final Dow high he is still looking for some sort of sharp correction next week if numbers are appropriate he will jump back in if necessary