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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (39679)	4/24/1999 8:05:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

Dunno LT... but read below... I have not done my Barron's based analysis so should see the high call/put ratio then when I do it: Thoughts on the current move up: Based on my review of certain indicators I keep, the current move up had its roots in Sept 1998. From then to now the DOW has moved 3000 points up, that is 400 points per month... not bad! And in the last month, we have moved up 1,000 of those points! REALLY not bad! That brings a flurry of questions to mind... - are we starting or are we at a peak??? I know you have heard recently that this bull market IS JUST STARTING and can go for 11 or so more years! That SURELY is a BUNCH of bull... 11 years worth, huh! When the Feds threw out fundamental analysis (I am all for that) this week, they certainly weren't watching the technicals! By every measure (and these are not "historical" in nature... just observations of what the market has done over the past several years) this market is so overvalued that is no safety net any more under the so-called underpinnings! What that means is that there is so much public participation at this point, either directly or indirectly (said on wall street week yesterday: 70% of Schwab's online business is day-trading) that there is not enough $$$ available to stave off a sustained exit by the general public. And that, in my mind, would bring down the house of cards entirely, and then some. - Well if that is the macro situation, what is the micro?? Fortunately, or unfortunately... depending on your viewpoint, the Feds have taken an accomodating stance. They have thrown out the tools which would have them raising interest rates in the face of this unprecedented (1929 was NOT this overblown) move. BUT (and that is a VERY big "but,") my indicators show this move can continue in the micro perspective. And speaking for the micro... IBM will do a lot to keep this mania going. - But what about somewhere between the micro and the macro? That gray area is owned by the small-caps. If VGY is any measure of what is to come, we have had a year-long downtrend breakout and now only to break the 450 level to get a 25% move or more to the upside. But, lurking in the background, there is not only an INVERTED H&S to propel us higher, but a normal H&S to take us 20% or more lower. And some short-term indicators I watch show the potential of this happening! How will it all end? IMHO, ugly! While there is no sign of a breakdown in this move yet (surely we may have a few pull-backs), the upper trendline implications of DOW tell me the low 11,000s is as high as we go for a while. Yes, I know 11,000 seems unimaginable, but listen how the marketplace is talking... we are in a new age where the global economies will start to kick in soon and take us higher, etc, etc, ad nauseum. So watch the volume trend and as long as it grows faster than DOW, the trend will continue! But we could be at a peak any day now! Or not! Bill

To: Lucretius who wrote (39679)	4/24/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

keeping the gold stocks, LUC ? HOHOHO HOward

To: Lucretius who wrote (39679)	4/24/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 94695

Up. When they realize they're wrong. Everything bar the P/E ratio of the SP500, and NASDAQ especially, looks great. The equity risk premium is obviously lower than it was partly perhaps tax related though I haven't checked what the rates were in the 1960s on capital gains in the US. And partly because of "foolishness". That can reverse when the economy gets worse people may get more risk averse again. The underlying fundamentals will eventually reverse perhaps as the coming boom in the rest of the World drives up commodity prices and causes a crunch for the heavy resource using US and Canada. But looking at a chart of World GDP over the last 20-25 years there is a roughly 5 year cycle and we just had the recession. The boom is just getting underway. In the US stockmarket we had the four year cycle bottom. All the indicators show that that (August-Oct 98) was it for the moment. The bear market in the small caps and resources seems to be coming to an end. This is my current view and could easily change if the evidence changes. PS as time goes by the Y2K bug looks less and less of an issue to me. Especially in developed countries. If there are problems in Japan or wherever nice contracts for Western companies to sort them out. David