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To: gbh who wrote (36052)	4/23/1999 9:18:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

well, if you believe the future is internet, IMHO it's not in the stocks that have profited the most so far. I understand IBM as an internet company vastly better than I understand anything on the nasdaq. IBM and LU have tons of patents in optical computing, if things fall in place quickly enough the two could put microsoft, dell and cisco out of business. msft, dell and csco are commodity producers, I don't think they have been forward-looking enough to see tectonic shifts in technology they are ill-equipped to handle. This is the frustrating thing...the internet is real, but the companies who stand to profit the most are not the ones bid to lofty levels on short-covering rallies. many of the freight companies, for instance, are selling close to book value, like CFWI.

To: gbh who wrote (36052)	4/23/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: TheStockFairy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

GBH There is a different message here that you are missing. For myself and at least one other person on this thread, we don't think that there is going to be a bear market anytime soon, nor do we care. What we do see is a bloated market primed to drop the Nasdaq down to the 200 DMA. What will spark this? Could be Greenspan, could be some kind of world news, could be 5fer going back into CPQ with a handgun. Realistically whatever the news is, we don't care. In fact, the Nasdaq really only has to fall about 250-300 points for us to walk away really happy. If this doesn't happen in the next 4 months, I'm willing to make the same put purchases I made this time around for the next 4 months, and so on and so on until it hits. It is my contention that you can make all of your money in a coupla trades a year. So far, this methodology has worked for me. The rest of the time, you are just sitting around waiting. Just remember, the enemy attacks when you least expect it. TSF

To: gbh who wrote (36052)	4/24/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

gbh, like I said, this market has a way of instilling humility in all, bulls and bears. I'm not a perma bear, but right now I think furthur upticks in the major indexes are not constructive without some backing and filling, and I don't mean a 1 day v shaped correction. When the 50 day moving average is so much higher than the 200 day moving average, you're looking for a blowoff to the downside. And we heard about the goldilocks environment last summer, that was before Hong Kong, et al melted down, taking everything with it. Earnings are not as great as you think. There is a game going on here called lowering First Call consensus estimates, then beating them by a few pennies. Or blowing them out, which is a bubble phenomenon in many cases, since stock buybacks are fueling the extra EPS. It's accounting tricks, and not core business sequential growth and strong sales. I like it very much though when I hear gloating from the bullish camps and the definitive statements that we are going up and up. This is when the humility factor will come in to play for those making the statements. It's not particularly fun being contrarian and bearish in the current market environment, but I continue to feel the risks in being long negate taking those positions, and that the potential profits in being short are great. The market falls a helluva lot faster than it goes up, and months of gains can be wiped out in a few trading days, leaving those with bullish bets no chance to get out.