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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trading Machine who wrote (6032)	4/24/1999 5:47:00 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 11051

TM, Junking Trip? Tell your lady that it's not right to fill up the addition before before it's built. <gg> Congrats, on your student's 16% ROI for the week! Hopefully Raleigh will join us in the sandbox some day. Just think how much further along you would be if you did 16% in your first week. So, were you a better teacher or Raleigh a better student? No, I think the concept has just evolved a little better. But, then again, you added a virtue to your list -- patience. TB

To: Trading Machine who wrote (6032)	4/24/1999 8:26:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

TM, Re: Pivot Points Raleigh just demonstrated the power of having more eyes out there. I agree that MWD is a great target. During my occupational confinement, which only allowed me to watch you and Bob, I came to appreciate that the problem most traders have is that they tend to think of the Pivot Point as a singular concept; whereas, a stock almost always has two pivot points and that these points are frequently changing. MWD - Close 4/23 $105; Pivot Points $106 and $97.50 Weekly Chart Analysis: MA, $78; HS, $98/$95; HR, $110; TL $89 x $110 This is going to be a fun stock to watch. The stock appears parabolic having gained 150% since the Oct low and 80% since the BASIC (hello) buy signal on 10/23, which is still in force. However, the stock is not far from its 7/24/98 high of $97.50, which, probably not surprising to TA fans, is the lower Pivot Point. The weekly charts are not controlling for this stock. Except the upper trend line is of critical importance. It frequently trades above the trend line, but when this happens (1) look for the exit door, and (2) the trend line is always the lower pivot point on a weekly closing basis. Daily Chart Analysis: It gave a BASIC sell signal 4/15 at $104.75 and the lower Pivot Point would have been a great entry point. I don't think I've seen a chart with 3 clearly defined trend lines creating a primary and secondary trading channel. The primary trading channel is huge and I currently show it at $94 x $120. Anytime it hits the lower channel line, back up the truck as the resulting move can easily be 33% in a short period of time. Obviously, if it falls below it get out as down is a long way. However, the stock spends most of its time in the secondary trading channel, which I currently show to be $106 x $120. Note that we are currently below the R point, which becomes the upper Pivot Point. This channel currently has a 16% spread and the stock frequently moves from the bottom to the top (and back again) in a very short time frame. Short-Term Analysis: The stock has hit its head on R two days in a row, and with the 60-min sto at the top, it's going to have a tough time getting through. However, that's anticipating, rather than reacting, which is a violation of the rules of engagement. Breaking through $106, it will immediately face Weekly TL and HR at $110, which would then become the upper pivot point. Conclusion: It will be interesting to witness whether it stays a trading channel stock or changes to a trading range stock. The argument for the potential change is current MA of $78 is a long way down there, and it may take a rest to allow it to catch up. Either way it is playable. The stock has everything we are looking for - volatility and neatly defined patterns. Most importantly, it is a nice SMM for determining the entry point; not as well defined for the exit point. Again, tell Raleigh -- Nice One! Excellent job for his first week! For the World -- I know this heavy, but this is how we play this game. Mr. Market does not hand you money, you got to earn it. Further, to get the kind of returns TM has demonstrated it's a lot of work. And by the way, BWDIK. TB