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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (43160)	4/24/1999 12:38:00 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Speaking of comments by CEOs: Schlumberger Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Euan Baird said in a statement there were hopeful signs that supply and demand for oil were moving closer to equilibrium. ''Early signs of a recovery in oil demand, particularly in Asia, coupled with the decline in non-OPEC production due to reduced (exploration and production) spending by the oil companies, are setting the stage for a vigorous recovery in oilfield activity next year,'' he said. I believe the key to this statement is "next year". There is still plenty of time load up your investment/trading portfolios for the long haul. Momentum is an interesting creature. It usually takes something major to bring about a reversal of the trend or the herd. Skepticism alone won't bring about a change, IMO. There will need to be an event that causes this bullish trend to halt or reverse. Until such time, I remain stead fast in the OS bull camp. I keep thinking about where the OSX will be a year from now if oil prices have stayed above $17 for that entire period. If this happens, we will look back at today's prices and wonder why we all weren't buying in boat loads! We have seen many of the major analysts who cover this sector reverse from bearish to bullish. We even have discussions of $20+ oil. I think we will continue to climb the wall of worry and uncertainty, at least for a while longer. As I stated earlier, I believe we will need an event to change the trend.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (43160)	4/24/1999 1:09:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

Slider--Emotionally, I quite agree with you....even Arch Crawford says the stars agree with you (vbg)...It's just that my interpretation of elliott says the OSX as an index is more likely to rally back to 78 first. Why, I have no idea, as oil is overbought and we're in the deadzone as you say..flipped out of GLM and PTEN last Wed/Thurs as they went 5 waves up, so correction due, which likely started Fri...Holding PGO as EW says 17-18ish...Arch will be shorting oil as af Mon am and cover and go long May 10. It's all so 'obvious'. Unfortunately, I can't seem to get Mr Elliott to agree just yet.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (43160)	4/24/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: Ahmed Elneweihi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, While I share your concerns about a possible correction to the oil price that moved so fast, I have the following thoughts for you and others to comment on. First there seems to be contradictions in your expectations for the next two weeks. On one hand you think oil will likely correct and put pressure on osx and oil stocks. If this is to happen, how will the longs sell on the good news of good compliance on May 10th as you indicated? Do you see the sophisticated investors who are in the habit of selling on good news will wait to May 10th to sell while they see the prices going down between April 26 and May 10th? Second, the report you showed about why oil went down on Friday gives very serious reasons that should have pushed the price a lot lower than it did. This is why I do not belive the report. If investors and speculators were worried on Friday about OPEC compliance, I would have seen oil dropping 10% or more, not 2%. Also, If you read Yamani's comments more carefully, you may see that they are related to the long term not the short term of the next few weeks or few months. Any way, will see what happens next week. Third, We all have noticed that oil, after moving that high in such a short period of time, held its own and even continued to advance. Now, do you think that the speculator who are long the oil are so nice as to hold the prices that high for a long time, allowing many oil companies who are cash starved to hedge their production at $16, $17, and $18? The 30-day moving average of oil is above $16 which means that oil companies had ample time to hedge their production for many months to come at or above $16. Do you believe that the oil market is so kind to them? Or is it that the speculators are pausing to allow this hedging (shorting) by oil companies and then move the oil price even higher? Which in your opinion is the more likely scenario?