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To: E. Davies who wrote (8560)	4/24/1999 10:11:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 29970

OT - re: Solutions, and their perceived Problems... Things are never as binary in this regard as you would make them appear. The switching time that it takes to take a tech from a 0 state to a full 1 is sometimes a long one. It's very often a vernier thing, by nature. The HDSL element, for example, began taking off almost immediately at that time as a substitute in situations that could not economically support traditional T1 lines in rural and campus (and some building riser) environments. ADSL took a more vernier approach, also originating at that time. Some of the principles behind the techs and architectural modeling that were cultivated for ADSL have now migrated to other forms of LAN and wireless, even cable TV delivery standards. Indeed, transmission over cable's HFC is for the most part, asymmetrical. Cable architectures of that day took just as long to reach the retail level as DSLs did. The market place was ready for neither back then. And the Internet had nothing to do with the conceptual origins of either of these. At the time, they were not even thought of as competing with one another, since there was no single unifying mass of content that they were perceived to intersect with, such as the Internet today. Rather, DSL was thought of as a faster, cheaper better way to put data over voice (when measured kilobit for kilobit), in order to support LAN and other internetworking architectures through connections in the central office. Prior to DSL, other DoV or data over voice alternatives were paltry in bit rates and kludgy to deal with. Having said that, neither of these (neither DoV nor ADSL) has ever taken off to any appreciable level where they were first perceived to be a useful solution. This was all taking place during a series of evolutionary events in telecomms technology that could only be described as a great turning point. A half dozen years in substantive making, and fifteen years before that in the nascent state, the Internet influence finally began to be felt. The great strawman representations which centered on the visions of McLuhan and Co., of what the Global Village would look like during the 90-91 time frame, centered around a number of set-top box-enabling gadgets and alternative Super Market shopping models and pizza delivery schemes. If you are looking for other such momentarily useless technologies, take a look at any list of emergents. Start with the developments at Lawrence Livermore, then go to MIT's Media Lab, and then take a look at the Gilder list. You will find that many of the items listed therein are solutions waiting for as-yet-undiscovered problems, or to keep it proper and Nintees-ish, opportunities.