Zeev -I actually thought the article was positive (skewed viewpoint)
Intel¹s Direct RDRAM delay sparks OEM interest in PC133
By Andrew MacLellan
Electronic Buyers' News
(04/23/99, 03:33:37 PM EDT)
OEM interest in PC133 SDRAM has increased substantially in the weeks
following Intel Corp.'s delay of Direct Rambus DRAM, particularly among
desktop-PC makers, according to a number of industry executives.
With demand prompting Smart Modular Technologies Inc., Unigen Corp., and
other module makers to ramp production of PC133 DIMMs, momentum for what
until recently had been the industry's fall-back architecture is clearly
on the rise.
³In general, you're getting a couple of segments looking at it,
especially consumer, because of the delay to Rambus and a perceived
price increase associated with that,² said Dan Pleshko, director of
memory and microprocessor corporate procurement at Compaq Computer
Corp., Houston.
Kingston Technology Co., a module maker based in Fountain Valley,
Calif., is producing PC133 DIMMs on a contractual basis for Toshiba
Corp., which has also seen OEM interest grow in the weeks since Intel
delayed Direct RDRAM.
³We've got two of the top three PC OEMs planning to use PC133,² said
Kevin Kilbuck, manager of memory engineering for Toshiba America
Electronic Components Inc., Irvine, Calif. ³I wouldn't say they're 100%
confirmed to be using it, but they are at least qualifying the chipset
and Toshiba PC133 modules.²
Keith McDonald, newly appointed president of Smart Modular in Fremont,
Calif., said calls for the architecture have been pouring in from PC
OEMs considering PC133 for use in new desktop platforms.
³What I know from my past is that Rambus was on the front burner and
PC133 was a back-up strategy,² said McDonald, who until last month was
senior vice president of sales and marketing for DRAM maker Samsung
Semiconductor Inc. ³Now, it's been moved to the front burner, and over
the last four weeks, we've seen many requests for PC133 modules.²
The bulk of the demand is coming from desktop and workstation
manufacturers, according to Scott Marx, director of sales for Unigen, a
module maker also based in Fremont. ³Even the embedded computers that
are currently using SDRAM are moving to PC133 in the next generation.²
Though it's stolen the spotlight for now, PC133 is still viewed largely
as an interim solution that will fill market demand only until the
advent of Direct RDRAM, executives agreed.
³Rambus is going to happen, it's just a question of whether the timing
fits everyone's cycles,² Pleshko said. ³Then we have the millennium and
issues associated with it, and the [Rambus] infrastructure costs.
There's a lot to look at.²
Rambus chips offer a dramatic 1.6-Gbyte/s peak bandwidth, twice that
available through today's PC100 SDRAM. However, technical issues have
caused Intel to push out its Camino chipset launch until September,
leaving the Rambus chip without a means of communicating with the host
processor.
In the meantime, many component suppliers are rushing to see how much of
a market they can establish with PC133, a natural follow-on to the PC100
architecture. PC133 requires little new technology compared with Rambus,
but increases peak throughput to only 1 Gbyte/s.
Still, because it's relatively easy to manufacture, suppliers are hoping
to build up the market, a tactic that could undercut initial demand for
Direct RDRAM, industry executives warned.
³I previously didn't think PC133 was very serious for the future,²
McDonald said. ³How it looks to me now is that PC133 could be a big
speed bump for Rambus.²
Unimpressed with PC133's modest performance increase-and concerned that
support for it could steer the industry away from the Rambus memory
path-Intel has steadfastly refused to endorse the alternative interface.
This is significant because Intel owned 80% of the chipset market in
1998, according to Mercury Research Corp., Scottsdale, Ariz. While other
chipset manufacturers-most notably Via Technologies Inc. and Reliance
Computer-are rolling out their own PC133-compatible chipsets, the
absence of an Intel-branded part will certainly restrict supply, and
sends a cautionary message to conservative PC vendors.
Calling PC133 SDRAM ³a distraction,² Avo Kanadjian, vice president of
memory marketing for Samsung Semiconductor, San Jose, said the lack of
chipset support will limit the memory to server applications. ³I don't
expect any excitement to be created with another synchronous DRAM [PC]
machine,² he said. ³I do expect excitement with a Rambus machine.²
Kanadjian said Samsung has run its Direct RDRAM through an
Intel-sponsored validation program and is beginning customer
qualification of volume production wafers. Samsung expects to begin
manufacturing Rambus chips 10 to 12 weeks following the qualification
process, during which initial production output levels are determined.
Despite Direct RDRAM's schedule slip, Samsung sees a market for about 40
million 128-Mbit Rambus units in 1999, and said it has the capacity to
meet that entire demand. The last several weeks have resulted in all
facets of the Rambus supply chain coming together, Kanadjian noted, a
departure from the industry's previous, more insular development
strategy.
³Clearly, we have a full understanding of everybody's schedule, and
we're confident that we will keep to schedule, provided that everyone
executes according to plan,² he said. ³The last time, we were in the
dark and were only concerned with our own performance. ... This time
around we're very much synchronized with the other suppliers, and we're
kept very much in the process of how our OEMs are doing.²
Most industry pundits agree that Rambus is an inevitability because of
its sheer performance and narrow, 16-bit bus. And companies such as
Samsung, which have committed to an early and sustained Rambus ramp,
have little choice but to follow through with their manufacturing plans.
However, other DRAM makers, reciting the mantra of ³evolution not
revolution,² believe the industry may be better off supporting more
incremental performance advances. Appearing at a recent PC133 forum Via
Technologies sponsored in Taiwan, Micron Technology, Infineon Technology
(formerly Siemens Semiconductors), and Hyundai Electronics Industries,
all outlined their SDRAM roadmaps, which include double-data-rate SDRAM
and PC133.
By the end of the year, the groundswell of support for PC133 may prove
to be overstated. But in the quest for product differentiation, PC
makers will continue casting about for a 1999 market performer, hedging
their bets in the event Rambus misses its revised third-quarter launch
date.
³It's all about the race for benchmarks,² McDonald said.
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