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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (11936)	4/24/1999 1:44:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

This just in: The BRADLEY Long Term Model has the high for this year as April 10 (Saturday) so give +/-2 trading days. So far, the 12th (Monday) was the high in the Russell 2000, NDX and a bunch of other indices. My 2nd date for top is April 23 on the Jupiter/Uranus sextile takes place at 12:55 EDT. That was the EXACT TIME of the earlier peak that was taken out by pennies at around 15:30EDT. BRADLEY has a secondary peak May 1-3 which happens to coincide with the Goldman IPO!!! Who needs tech analysis. Just short when Goldman gets out! Arch --------

To: Vitas who wrote (11936)	4/24/1999 2:00:00 AM
From: Compadre	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Vitas: I mostly use the 55 Day EMA in conjunction with Volume , W%R and MACD. We have seen the 55 day EMA violated several times lately by the NAZ. And the last one was on extreme volume. One of the days of this downturn was 1.43B and the day it violated the 55 Day EMA it was 1.2 B shares. I thought this was it, but the market proved me wrong and I realized that when IBM announced earnings. But even if it did not crash this time, I believe that this was a warning shot. The good side of this downturn was that MACD never made a lower low (than the one in early March), and also that it never went below Zero (indicating that the trend is still up). The 34 day W%R never made it to the oversold region, indicating the market's strength. When the market goes into an extended down trend W%R tend to stay in the oversold area the majority of the time, and the same is true with and extended bull cycle, but in the later case it would the spend most of it's time in the overbought region. One example of this trending behavior is the period between the lows in last Oct. to the highs in February. You can see in this period that the 34 day W%R hardly ever trended lower than -20%. As a matter of fact a lot of people use this region of the W%R as an intermediate term buy signal because of this trending behavior. So Vitas, in summary I combine the trending indicators with the short term indicators of price and volume. But I must say that one thing is to have the indicators, and another is to interpret them, and a lot of times there is the subjectivity of the person interpreting these facts getting in the way. That's why I do short term trading rather that intermediate or long term. By the time the signals are clear, a short term trader is usually out of the market looking for an entry point to his next trade already. As opposed to the long term player who is still waiting for confirmation. But I guess that's a matter of preference. I hope this is some help to you, I know I am not very good with words, but there it is for whatever it is worth. Regards, Jaime