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Biotech / Medical : Gliatech (GLIA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BradleyMarshall who wrote (735)	4/24/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 2001

Bradley: Well, I differ with you regarding the potential two-year downside, but..... I agree, it would be good to see them launch the phase II independently. OTOH, when a company reaches a point where they can say both that (1) they've budgeted a phase IIa trial, and (2) they are projecting sustained profit, they ALREADY have some bargaining power. If a partner wants a project enough at this stage (phase I), there are innovative ways to do a license. GLIA could then move on to the properdin project, and leave clinical development of 2331 to a company with the resources to do it correctly. ADHD, narcolepsy, dementias, obesity..... if you're a small company with less than $30 million in the bank, you need to pick and choose your battles. That costs time. It is better, IMO and if you can get a large downstream commitment (in this case, I'd say either co-marketing and a 50:50 split of revenues or some equity upfront for a restricted geography and 20% royalties), to let a pharma dig in with multiple small "test" clinicals. Lots of flexibility. The pull must be strong for Oesterling/Dausch et al. to remain a potent, highly profitable entity. This would mean an immediate license, coming out of the multiple-dose phase I. I'd lean toward letting a partner do it. H3 is a great op, but it's also a physiological maze. My 12 month target (11 months now?) is based on a license. If they take the molecule to phase IIa without a partner, I'll decrease my position and 12 month target, but I'll also raise my hopes for the long-term. Either way and IMO, the stock price doesn't fit the company. Cheers! Rick