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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (56170)	4/24/1999 4:34:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571408

Ten - Rules of engagement... (cont.) Good response Ten. I would only add, that .18 is in production. "Somebody actually has to make these things" (tm_PB). <If someone can put on the hat of an Intel manager and come up with the thought process on how to respond if AMD, within their capacity and customer restraints, ramps K7 from 500 MHz in June to 700 MHz in Q4 and K6-3 from 400-600 MHz from now to Q4.> It's simple. Intel already created the rules of the segmentation game and is addressing the concerns of each segment. For the low-end, the new Whitney chipset coming into stores by June should help reduce the price of Intel-based Celeron platforms by $100. This should effectively drive out AMD, since they won't have a response to the new drive towards integration. Then the low-end will turn into an Intel vs. Cyrix battle, but Cyrix has been rather weak as of late. For the high-end, x86 servers and workstations are still the domain of Intel. Even if AMD takes the lead in pure performance, they still need to drive the platform. Believe it or not, customers who buy servers care more about RAS (reliability, availability, and serviceability) than performance. While AMD may have the help of Compaq/Digital, Intel will have Compaq, HP, Dell, IBM, Sequent, NEC, Hitachi, and others to continue to drive the Xeon platform. The high-performance and mid-range desktops are perhaps areas where AMD can make a strong showing with the K7. I think in this area, Intel will push Coppermine, the Camino chipset, and RDRAM against AMD's K7 platforms which will definitely be immature even going into 2000. Then if AMD executes flawlessly with K7, Intel will just have to weather the storm until Willamette arrives. However, Intel also realizes that the PC market is changing very rapidly, and the growth in mid-to-high-performance desktops just isn't there anymore. This is rather ironic considering that AMD needs to enter this segment just to survive. That's Intel's game plan, and it's rather diverse. Of course, things will probably change now that Intel wants to become a virtual dot-com nowadays. And all of this isn't dependent on AMD falling flat on its face. Tenchusatsu

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (56170)	4/24/1999 10:19:00 AM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571408

Ten, This should effectively drive out AMD, since they won't have a response to the new drive towards integration. The K6 family can use any integrated Socket 7 chipset. As always, the key to the success of the K6 family is MHz. Whitney doesn't change that. Scumbria

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (56170)	4/24/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 1571408

Tenchusatsu, Believe it or not, customers who buy servers care more about RAS (reliability, availability, and serviceability) than performance. Ten, I'm proud of you. Almost brought a tear to my eye. Tony

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (56170)	4/24/1999 12:30:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1571408

Tenchusatu, Nice high level summary. Now, what does this really mean in terms of market shares and ASPs? What is your take on what % of the processor market is in each of these segments will Intel/AMD have and at what price points? Ex: Q4'99/Q1'00 market share Segment % of Processors units ASPs x86 mkt Intel AMD Others Intel AMD Other Low-end 40 Celeron K6-2 75% 20% 5% 80 60 50 Mid-range 50 PIII, K6-3/K7 70% 30% 200 150 High-end 10 Xeon, K7 90% 10% 400 400 (This is an example only - NOT my guesstimates) In the "what-if-AMD-does-not-screw-upo-with-K7" scenario something like the above (with a range of values for sure) is what Intel managers will probably optimizing for. How to keep the highest amount of gross margin $ as they wait for Wilamette. Chuck