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Technology Stocks : TLAB info? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: llwk7051@aol.com who wrote (5441)	4/24/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: Baldwin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7342

You said it, "... long-term consistent earnings growth." I was just thinking...throw out all the strategies for determining value of a stock. Look at history, look at Birck's predictions (does he EVER overshoot? NO), look at consistency in ANY area of the company.

To: llwk7051@aol.com who wrote (5441)	4/24/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7342

Robert, this discussion brings up one other very interesting point. Let's forget about valuation and focus on the issue of growth. Assuming that you buy a company like TLA and it can grow earnings consistently for a long period of time (let's say 5 years for example) at a growth rate of say 30%. So five years from now it should be worth 3.7129 of what it is worth today. If today's price is properly set that yields an annualized growth of 30%. But what if the price today is too high? Let's say for the sake of argument it is 10% too high, so that the return after 5 years would be 3.3754. If you calculate that back the rate of appreciation falls to 27.55%. And that pretty much underscore the problem with Jubak's thinking: it is entirely too short-sighted. Birck has pretty much guaranteed 34% for the next 4 years. TTFN, CTC