To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (379 ) 4/24/1999 12:16:00 PM From: HVN Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 720
Frank, I doubt that really matters (I believe they have both - depends on ther area you talk about). What DOES matter is that they OWN the customer. That's where the value lies. Remember, it a lot more expensive to take away someone else's customer than it is to 'buy' them for the first time, or retain them (supposedly 5 times more expensive). In RCN's case, they are offering customers a new type of service they have never had before - bundled services - which basically mean simplified and total lower costs of household telecom services. So, acquiring customers, where there are no comparable alternatives, is easy. Assuming RCN does a decent job of managing their customers, it's going to be rather expensive for AT&T or BAtlantic to grad RCN's customers - it would be a lot cheaper to simply buy RCN out at a price somewhere between RCN's cost of customer acquisition and about 5-7 times that cost. Another way of looking at it - if a $40/mo wireless customer (that's what the average cellular bill has fallen to these days) can sell for $2800 (similar with cable), then a customer buying $120/mo in services will sell for at least $7500 - conservatively. If RCN can get about 300K of those customers, that's a value of $2.25B - realize that customer retention figures are MUCH higher the more services a customer buys from you. Now, assume that of their 500K internet customers, paying about $18/mo, they get about $500/customer - of which 250K are not part of the bundled service offering - that's an additional value of $1.25B. Then their other businesses (Internet domain registeration, and other stuff) are worth at least $0.5B. That's a total market value of $4B at the least $60. I think that's conservative. Your thoughts?