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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jing Qian who wrote (8572)	4/24/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: RTev	Respond to of 29970

So, don't worry! I'm not worried as much as I am "interested". I approach this question partly from the viewpoint of one who bought some ATHM+XCIT stock at too-high prices. Those who bought at lower prices could more easily afford to ride out a dip in the price when the reality of this situation plays out. It is speculation at this point, but worthwhile since the sentiment on such things seems to have a huge effect on ATHM's daily value. So let me summarize some of what I've said: I too believe -- based on all I've read here and elsewhere -- that T would win approval to buy UMG if it wins any bidding war for the stock that might still develop. Regulators have allowed regional consolidation of the RBOCs. This regional consolidation of cable operators is likely to be seen in the same light. But there are some problems. Armstrong hinted at them in his message about the offer and said that AT&T would do what it takes to overcome those regulatory problems. Where are the problems? Look at the last 'graph in the Bloomberg story you posted: Antitrust officials also are likely to scrutinize the combination's effect on Internet service competition, said Washington antitrust lawyer Charles Zielinski, a former chairman of the New York State Public Service Commission. AT&T's alliance with At Home Corp., the No. 1 high-speed cable Internet service, could be seen as a way of denying consumers a choice of Internet service, Zielinski said. And again in the ZDNet story posted by Sleeper in message #8569: One hang-up could be that besides owning 70 percent of @Home, AT&T would inherit MediaOne's 40 percent stake in RoadRunner. AT&T raised a conciliatory flag, offering to do whatever necessary to gain regulatory approvals to close the deal this year. The Federal Communications Commission was closed Friday for a federal holiday and unavailable for comment. So here's the problem: Even though AT&T's purchase of MediaOne is likely to win approval, a merger of RoadRunner and @home is unlikely to win approval. It is likely that AT&T would be forced to divest the UMG interest in RoadRunner in such a way that RoadRunner remains at least as important a force as it is now. I fear the Wall Street sentiment toward the deals they would have to make to do that will not be kind, in the short run, to ATHM's stock.