Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ahmed Elneweihi who wrote (43184)	4/24/1999 6:25:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

The major implications as I see them, would be a tremendous diversion of capitol from projects in places like the Gulf of Mexico, South America, and just about everywhere else actually. After all, the Middle East fields are the ultimate lost reservoirs, right? For the OS investor it would possibly mean a shift to what Slider called "picks and shovels" companies or companies that manufacture land rig and subsystems components and out of deep water rigs and service companies. I know this will not be widely popular on this board but, even if it does not become a huge story, then it might at least provide some potent investment ideas.

To: Ahmed Elneweihi who wrote (43184)	4/24/1999 7:01:00 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

Ahmed: With respect to the increased ME capacity, ravaging the price of oil, this is of course a possibility. I however, would not consider it a probability for the following reasons. This last bottom cycle revealed many things to us about how well the economies of many ME producing countries fare with $10 oil. The answer is not very well. Most persian gulf bourses were decimated, and even a country as strong a Saudi Arabia was faced with an immanent currency crises. And believe me, the currency raiders were all set to tee off on the Rial had not OPEC concluded its recent agreement. The best way for the ME producers to maintain oil prices a t a high level (mid to high teens) would be to rob their competitors of development capital. But to do this they would have to create a kind of GOld Rush mentality by totaly opening their fields up. Of course we then would have to deal with the question of what happens to the state run oil companies. But that is another post. These countries absolutely DO NOT WANT $10 oil. Iran alone has large plans to develop into a modern industrial nation. That costs money. $10 oil is not in the cards for them. Anyway my kids are calling and I must go. Just weekend ruminations of an oily nature. All the best - Bull