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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1467)	4/24/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

"Microsoft has a market cap greater than Canada's GDP," Killen says. "It will be very difficult for that stock to double in the next 10 years. That's a quote from an article espousing the notion that value investing is coming back to life and that investors will be taking their money out of the really large-cap stocks. I gotta tell you that I have a hard time justifying the market's love affair with the large-cap stocks, at least with the magnitude that the love is shown. But to say that it will be difficult for Softie's stock to double in the next ten years is lunacy without showing support of that statement. Does this guy not realize that it only has to grow at a 7.2% annual rate for it to double in the next ten years? Does he really think Microsoft's performance in the next ten years will be lower than the historical return of the stock market? Doesn't he realize Microsoft could probably BUY Canada with their stock and tell the U.S. DOJ to shove it? Okay, so everything the guy says isn't lunacy. You might want to see the article at cbs.marketwatch.com --Mike Buckley

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1467)	4/24/1999 8:48:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike: Would like to think about your point a bit if I may. In early days in 1990 and even more so in 1991 Wellfleet was coming up fast on the outside in the race with Cisco and I actually thought might win. Hard to imagine now. This was in WAN exclusively. LAN was others' bag then. Also in 1992 and 1993, Stratacom was starting up strong and in 1993 and 1994 Cascade Comm entered strong in WAN space. I owned them all as was my style. But watched carefully. Through 1994, Cisco was a king at best - more like a prince probably. No way a gorilla. Don't have Gorilla Game book available now - lent out - so can't refresh my limited memory there. But it was only in middle 90's IMO that Cisco began to emerge from the pack. Buying Stratacom was a big event. As was the Synoptics/Wellfleet merger failure. Around then would be where gorilla was born IMO. What was not appreciated then was the importance of the Cisco OS combined in its routers as the key advantage Cisco had for QOS in networking. But just for the record, Cisco did not have then and does not have now the lock on an enabling technology the Q has. So the answer in brief is that Cisco ain't the gorilla the Q is - wasn't then - isn't now. And the opportunities in networking were (and are) much more limited IMO than those the Q has in wireless worldwide and the wireless/internet tsunami. But I will be very interested in others' memories, analysis, views, etc. Needless to say, don't expect much agreement from the long term gorilla fans here. But again, this old grey head sees the Q as the best gorilla candidate in my long lifetime - we live in interesting times. As always, respect. Chaz too