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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (19891)	4/25/1999 11:00:00 AM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

COMS, TWX, ADLAC,UMG, T, MUEI, CPQ, PEP: - Thoughts from the beach (no ron, i didn't play 31, 46 came up on my big role. and yes, the info was well worth the $10 bucks) COMS - seems to have broken out from the low 20s base - as a trading stock, looking to take profits 25-27, as an intermediate term hold, see 30-40 later this year. Cable stocks, - big time play. T's bid for UMG is a major event. If T gets UMG, they will be the 50 ton gorilla in cable/internet/and wild card by-passing local telephone companies. here are my thoughts: T - a buy and long term hold here. the dip to the low 50's was a gift- it may go lower, but T is a core holding IMO. T also has major stake in ATHM - which will be the cable modem provider to TCI, COX, Comcast, etc. UMG - stock is in play, obviously, T's offer is generous, with a collar to T's stock falling as low as 51. Offer is $85, UMG is 77, UMG is best sure thing since my senior prom. ADLAC - Adelphia Cable - now the 5th biggest cable co after several recent acquisitions. Think Comcast will have to go after ADLAC if it loses to T on UMG. (and I don't think CMCSA (Comcast) can compete with T unless it brings in a big partner (TWX, MSFT?)Additionally, ADLAC is majority owner of HYPT, a nice CLEC. TWX- the play on UMG only shows how valuable the cable assets are. TWX is the second biggest cable company and half owner of Roadrunner (other half-owner is UMG) Keep in mind that UMG owns 1/4 of TWX's cable biz, so T would get that too. (sounds incestuous) I think T will buy as much cable assets as the government will allow it to. MA CABLE. MUEI - Micron Electronics. on the mat at 10-11/share, micron is direct computer maker, with ibm, gtw, and dell rebounding as it seems that CPQ's problems are CPQ- specifice, MUEI could be an interesting play. Also, maybe HWP will buy them to get direct market exposure. CPQ- buy some and put it away. this stock is dead money for the short run, but CHEAP in the long run. expect to see a pop to 30 or so on new ceo-announcement or sale of assets, or alta vista spin-off. PEP- pepsi - looks like great trading stock 36-41 range. PEP had good earnings, then CEO shot his mouth off about tech write-offs. PEP at 36 is low risk IMO and just wait for pop back near 40. right susie? well, back in the saddle monday. enjoyed the time at the beach. major contrast between cape may NJ and atlantic city. larry