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To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (45384)4/25/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
I agree that the leading producers should be able to make money at $6 this year, which is why I believe that the price won't stabilize until it reaches $5.50 or so, and if fact it wouldn't surprise me to see prices dip as low as $4.50-5.00. Isn't MU's target to get costs down to $4.50 this year?

Even at $6 though we should see some of the marginal producers starting to re-evaluate plans to expand DRAM capacity. My guess is that with DRAM holding in the $9+ range in the first quarter, a lot of producers ordered equipment to expand capacity for delivery, and that as the price plummets to sub $6 some of those orders will get deferred or cancelled. By the fourth quarter we should know, but the next several months will be rough ones for all DRAM producers, including MU.

Thanks for taking the time to post on this thread,

Carl



To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (45384)4/25/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Fabeyes  Respond to of 53903
 
...If Hyundai can make money at $6, what does that imply for the rest of the industry?

I doubt if they can other than their yields are 20-40% higher than MU. It is cultural too. They are in a war and to win they MUST cripple Micron. In addition to that the parent company can make a lot of money in other areas and divert it to the Semi's. This is MU's open wound; they have nothing left to sell but chips. Who want's Lehi or are YOU in the market for a PC company? If so I have some old MK stock I will sell you at $30.00 a share.



To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (45384)4/25/1999 9:50:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 53903
 
tad, there is marginal cost and there is net cost. two entirely different animals. oh, and competitive advantage. oh, and we all know dram will turn next q ;-)