Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Emilio Machado, DDS who wrote (12693)	4/26/1999 3:08:00 AM
From: Highlander	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

For the past week, I've been contemplating AOL's upcoming earnings number against my own personal expectation. I've traded in/out of AOL (3) times this year. Each time making a few thousand dollars. I don't believe in shorting, but realize that it's part of the game. However, during all of last week, I decided to accumulate and hold AOL as one of the foundations in my equity portfolio. I now hold 500 shares of AOL (I'm sure this is nothing compared to some of you out there) The reason...I believe the revenues/earnings will be outstanding!!! FWIW, these are my own BIAS opinions on the possible scenario shortly after AOL's quarterly revenues/earnings are announced after the market closes on Tuesday. On Tuesday's closing, I'll assume/guess that AOL stock should be around +/-$165 to $170. A) AOL reports earnings of less than $0.09. Big time disappointment. Stock heads south. The commons consolidates in the $110 to 120 range. Honestly...I'd be the first one out the door. I don't expect this to happen B) AOL reports earning of $0.09 meeting analyst expectations. Ho Hum numbers. The current market price of the stock and the concensus by those of us on Yahoo/SI would dictate that AOL's earnings should be better than this. The commons consolidate in the $125 range. C) AOL reports earnings of $0.10 to $0.11. Goooood enough!!! I believe, the market will discount the price of the commons before the announcement with a price of +/-$165. As we all know, there will be strong resistance at the 52 week high of $175. The stocks could initially fall back to the $145 to $150 range, but will then slowly move higher (as AOL always does). Don't be surprised to see a short term sell off. D) AOL reports earnings of $0.12 to $0.13. Veeerrry nice numbers!!! The commons would immediately gap up to ($180+). Smiles and euphoria all around. Nuff said. E) Finally, AOL reports earnings of $0.14 or greater. AOL goes ballistic!!! The commons are easily worth ($200 to $225). It's Party Time!!! Again, let me reiterate, these are my own subjective views. I wholeheartedly welcome all those that are older and wiser (well...ok...older and/or wiser) to correct my babbling. THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE!!!