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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Hume who wrote (19248)	4/25/1999 4:54:00 PM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

alan, the huge production ramp was always scheduled for next year. some analysts think micron's rdram production will exceed samsung's by early next year. then we have over a dozen smaller players ready to jump in. intc does not announce new products until they are shipping so your june time frame looks great to me (i have heard that dell is preparing a major new product release for early summer). it does seem a bit early though. there are other possibilities for major announcements that could drive rmbs fast and furious. a few that i can think of: matsushita should be close to announcing a variety of consumer products using rambus technology. printers, copiers, dvd, scanners, hdtv's, etc.. reh and i both think a motorola announcement is overdue. ti should have some products other than the telephone equipment ready for rdram. mips and or quaalcom should have some uses for rambus technology. intc could use rmbs with their new arm core embedded processor(this will be a much bigger market than pc's). we could see a major cell phone company pick up rambus. hdtv's will start coming out in a large way later this year. look for rdram inside. sony and toshiba could move along a little faster with the construction of their rdram manufacturing facility and start early production. we could get an announcement from a camera company. i love my new sony mvc-fd 81. i'm not sure what it has for memory. and you know allen all of the above could happen tomorrow. next year, rambus gets portables, playstation II and who knows what else. unclewest

To: Alan Hume who wrote (19248)	4/25/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Alan, You make a number of good points in your assessment. I think the major factor driving the timing is the rampup of the dram manufacturers. Those ones that have a solid 0.18-0.20u process seem to have no prblem with 800Mhz at 128Mbit. Those that don't have that process yet seem to be more focused on 64mbit and slower speeds. This puts this second group of companies in a difficult situation. If they bring out a 64 Mbit, 700 Mhz part, how many will they sell, particularly given Samsung will be selling 128Mbit 800Mhz parts? And how much will it cost them to bring out this "obsolete" part? And they don't really want to accelerate their fab upgrades if they can help it. So it would seem like it would be in their best interest to slow down the RDram rampup as much as possible. They could do this by creating FUD. -- Alan