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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaiS who wrote (21351)	4/25/1999 7:47:00 PM
From: DAVID	Respond to of 23519

DaiS, <<Regarding cost of Alibra, my 25%...I was talking about the cost to make Alibra>>. Let's assume, for discussion, MUSE costs $6.00/dose. That would make ALIBRA cost between $1.50 - $2.00 per dose. If Vivus wants a reasonable mark up to Janssen and AZ for Europe, Vivus might sell MUSE to partners for $5.00 - $6.50 per dose. Retail sell price to customers might then be $12.00 - $15.00 per dose. I can't see at this time a sale price for ALIBRA outside the US for less then $12.00 per dose versus Viagra $10 per dose (roughly). Yes the cost would come down for better manufacturing efficiencies and retail cost also come down. The best reasons for ALIBRA over MUSE are a combination of items: one dose, smaller pellet, no pain, better (or broader) result profile, reduced refrig. needs, lower cost, easier to use, etc. My big questions is: if Janssen and AZ paid x dollars for MUSE so far, have they received a positive return on investment as of today or are they still negative cash flow. When will (or did) they break even on their MUSE investment ? Considering ALIBRA will come out early next year, how much do our partners want to spend to 'aquire' ALIBRA and how will this affect their current stock (and re-ordering) and marketing push of MUSE FOR THE FUTURE ? If AZ doesn't pick up the marketing rights to ALIBRA/MUSE in the US, will this sour their interest in ALIBRA/MUSE in Europe ? As YODA says, do or don't do. Only the future will tell. DAVID