To: Shane M who wrote (602 ) 4/25/1999 8:36:00 PM From: Wright Sullivan Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 721
Shane- I really like eMRO. Not just because it may contribute to earnings in '00 and '01, but because it represents a completely different business model if they need an escape hatch from the client server model. And it is being implemented with minimal outlay so far ($3 million). Smart move. I have been reading in InfoWorld, etc., about SAP and Baan and others' strategies for a new business model for the internet era. None of them make much sense to me, beyond trying to be a portal (how many portals does the world need? And will the portal concept exist five years hence?). They are all interested in e-commerce, but they all have to migrate to a brand new approach in order to position themselves in the path of their customers' e-commerce revenue stream. I think this uncertainty about what ERP will look like in the internet age is hurting the general ERP sector, in addition to Y2K revenue diversions. But DSTM doesn't have to change their approach to position themselves in their customers' e-commerce revenue streams. All they have to do is give them the free eMRO software and encourage them to do what they are already doing with MP2/MP5 (i.e. MRO), but just do it on-line. That's why I like DSTM and eMRO so much--there's a very clear path to an e-commerce model, but it doesn't involve any threat to their current approach. Thanks for coming back to me on ITWO, because it interests me very much. Is the ITWO board here on S.I. worthwhile? I need to learn more details on ITWO, and fast, because this dip won't last forever. I think ITWO and DSTM will both be darlings a year from now. You must be right about DSTM mentioning Peregrine. I wrote down "Paragrant(?)" during my cc notes. Glad to know. There are a lot of companies in this space, so it's hard to know them all. Are you familiar with Peregrine? Personally, I feel like we are seeing an incredible fire sale here on ERP stocks, with DSTM among the best positioned and least favored. I have a small order in for ROSS, though I don't think they are as impregnable as DSTM. ROSS has much larger competitors, and their niche may be wiped out (or it may endure). Hard to say. I feel much stronger about DSTM. Siebel is also of interest to me, though I have not done my homework yet on it, either. Today I put in a market order for another chunk of DSTM. I don't want it to run away from me, even though it may drop again. This, to me, is one of those Buffett moments--you know something is cheap and you feel certain it will be much higher a year from now, so you give it a good swing. And if DSTM drops to 7 again, I can always dump some more TLAB or some other highflyer. It's nice that ERP hit the doghouse as the rest of the market hit new highs. Makes it easy to shift the portfolio. Kind regards, Wright