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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zardoz who wrote (5563)	4/25/1999 6:50:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Respond to of 81050

As usual..fantastic ..thank you Hutch!

To: Zardoz who wrote (5563)	4/25/1999 6:55:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 81050

Hutch, The big mistake I see most people make concerning inflation/gold is that they miss the anticipatory factor. This is hard for most to grasp. Simply comparing charts or interest rates, the CRB and the XAU, does't tell the whole story. Beside, the CRB is heavily weighted to the grains, IMHO.

To: Zardoz who wrote (5563)	4/25/1999 8:05:00 PM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81050

"... gold does better in deflation. I agree with this... stated it many times" Once again: Give an example of a deflation in N. America since the 30s and show how gold did well at that time. Deflation not disinflation. dd

To: Zardoz who wrote (5563)	4/25/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 81050

Higher yields in the face of low discount yields is where the real pressure comes from. If USA DOESN'T raise rates, then they will create higher inflation. Hutch, I heard an interesting comment the other day on CNBC. An bond manager was discussing how US treasuries were facing unexpected competition from corporate bond offerings that were being issued in greater quantity in the 1st half of 1999 because there are concerns that Y2K would impact their marketability in the 2nd half. If this is the case then wouldn't we be witnessing a temporary short-term distortion of Treasury bond rates that will equalize themselves this summer when T-bills may become the safe haven of choice? I think this is why the Fed has not acted, because they know rates will be going down later this year. As for a neutral currency, I really have a problem understanding that theory since I'm obviously US centric, having our assets denominated in dollars. I perceive the US dollar as the global reserve currency (and growing in that status as more and more dollars find their way into foreign coffers as they did in the post-WWII years). Its only current competition would seem to be gold or silver as a financial storehouse of value, IMO. As for aggressive Call writing in gold after the gold spike to $800, I certainly can't argue with you there. And I'm certainly not an options expert as you have displayed yourself to be. I was just dealing with physical assets and which would have been a better store of value. (wouldn't a pyramiding put option play on gold have netted even more profit than writing calls on gold in your possession?). Regards, Ron