To: Mark Fleming who wrote (28311 ) 4/26/1999 From: jpbrody Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
I thought the big news in the Business Week article was about AT&T's strategy. It sounds like they will be shedding their TDMA system sooner than I thought. Here's an excerpt from the article: The big loser in the U.S. market could be AT&T. Its Digital One Rate has been a huge hit, attracting more than a million new customers so far. But its wireless-data strategy looks problematic. AT&T is planning to combine its existing voice technology with a separate technology called cellular digital packet data (CDPD) to handle data calls. Cramming two technologies into a phone risks making it bulky--exactly the problem with AT&T's first PocketNet phones. What's more, few phone makers are interested in making CDPD phones because they're not sure the technology has wide appeal. AT&T says Mitsubishi is planning to deliver a CDPD phone by the fourth quarter, although it cautions the date is not definite. ''We're working with phone manufacturers to come out with another [phone] next year,'' says Daniel Hesse, chief executive of AT&T Wireless Services. Here's the dilemma for AT&T: Its existing voice technology--something called time division multiple access, or TDMA--can handle data traffic. But putting data over TDMA would require AT&T to install new equipment in virtually all of its 10,000 cell sites across the U.S. The company is reluctant to do that, since it spent millions of dollars in the mid-1990s to install CDPD equipment nationwide. Moving to TDMA for data would cost the company tens of millions more. AT&T argues that there's little point to the expense. It says it plans to be one of the first U.S. companies to deploy 3G technology. It plans on rolling out the equipment in 2001 with broad availability by 2002. ''We don't want to be distracted doing an interim solution that will become obsolete when we go to 3G,'' says Kendra VanderMeulen, AT&T's senior vice-president for wireless products. The risk is that the company could be left without a competitive Web phone for three years. ''AT&T is in real trouble if data takes off on wireless,'' warns consultant Seybold. Other phone companies think that they need an immediate solution. Like AT&T, Bell Atlantic (BEL) has a CDPD network and a separate wireless voice network. However, it has chosen to upgrade its voice network to handle data rather than use CDPD for the mass market. ''[CDPD] is the tank, and it is never going to be a race car,'' says Richard J. Lynch, chief technology officer at Bell Atlantic's mobile operation. Bell Atlantic will continue to use CDPD for industry-specific tasks like transmitting license-plate information to police squad cars. Who will benefit from AT&T's problems? Sprint looks the most likely. Although it still has coverage problems in parts of the U.S., Sprint has the advantage of using one wireless technology at one radio frequency. That makes it easier to roll out new data technologies--and with the planned rollout of Net phones this summer, Sprint is pushing the advantage aggressively. ''We're on a development path that we think is a generation ahead,'' says Sukawaty, who plans to install 3G gear as soon as customers demand it.