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Technology Stocks : JMAR Technologies(JMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilberry who wrote (7847)	4/25/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: Bilberry	Respond to of 9695

Interesting link from Darpa page, shows some sort of grant to JMAR from 1997: darpa.mil

To: Bilberry who wrote (7847)	4/26/1999 5:05:00 PM
From: Falstaff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9695

It depends on the application. I am not sure where a 3W system could be used, but 30W is probably sufficient for many kinds of X-ray "illumination" applications. The point is this: things always take longer and cost more than you expect. I think your comments about possible sales are very speculative. Perhaps I am just skeptical by nature, but I don't see JMAR turning out any kind of real X-ray product this year. Next year seems more reasonable to me. Consider how these things usually develop... First, there is no "expert" at the application of X-rays at JMAR. Turcu is an expert in the generation of X-rays using plasmas. Expertise that knows X-ray to be a good solution for a particular problem will come primarily from the problem domain, that is, scientists and engineers trying to solve a particular problem. Second, JMAR has not announced the appointment of an "X-Ray Product Manager" or "X-Ray Business Development" position of any kind. They do not have anyone dedicated to the required marketing function. Though Foster and Turcu have made interesting statements, the focus is still on the production of BriteLight to support PXS, and PXS for XRL. No other laser applications or partnerships have been announced. No other X-ray applications or partnerships have been announced. Let's assume that they get some attention as a result of press releases and conference presentations. Now, some application scientist who knows he could benefit from an economical X-ray source opens discussions with JMAR. It will probably take at least 2 months, and maybe more like 6 months, for a product to be defined. Then someone has to undertake the product development, and that without hurting the XRL effort. Assume 3 months to produce a prototype and 3 months to test it and refine it. If it is medical, you can easily double these numbers, and then add more for various approvals and certifications. In other words, IF someone is interested right now, there might be a real product pop out in early next year. I am not saying that this must happen this way. JMAR could change this with a crash development. I just doubt that it will happen. They will be trying to maintain profitability (so JPSI will not be full time on X-ray or laser product development), find a market niche for BriteLight and advance PXS. Unless management spots a real "killer app" and goes after it with very serious commitment, the development of X-ray applications will occur as those applications seek out JMAR, not the other way around. Ultimately, your speculations about the market sizes may prove true. I have a hard time believing it will happen this year, or even next. I want to see significant strategic alliance and partnership announcements. Then I will know JMAR is getting the attention and the help it needs to target real economic opportunities. Sales aren't needed as much as serious consideration from outside, which is the manifestation of potential revenue and growth in the future. As usual, a long-winded IMO.