To: Bill Harmond who wrote (52650 ) 4/26/1999 9:17:00 AM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
WALL ST WEEK AHEAD - Will the bull run continue? By Jennifer Shaw NEW YORK, April 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. bull market has climbed over the earnings mountain, taking a haul of record gains to the other side. But concerns over interest rates and the conflict in Kosovo could dent a market ripe for correction in the week ahead. "Most of the earnings reports are already out and as we get to the end of it the market is going to focus on the economy and fear of inflation," said Ricky Harrington, technical analyst at Wachovia. "I think we could top out any week. The market is susceptible to a correction." Wall Street is not entirely out of the earnings woods yet, with America Online Inc. <AOL.N>, AT&T Corp. <T.N>, Warner-Lambert Co. <WLA.N> and Aetna Inc. <AET.N> among those still left to go. The Internet & Electronic Commerce trade show in New York could make for some Internet stock fireworks. The Internets corrected sharply at the beginning of last week, sending the Nasdaq to its second worst point-drop, but a combination of bargain-hunting and strong earnings from International Business Machines Corp. <IBM.N> helped the group erase those losses by the end of the week. The Dow has made 10 record closing highs this month, with much of the ground gained coming on buoyant earnings news. Analysts say the crisis in Kosovo is likely to move higher on Wall Street's radar screen. "What concerns me about Kosovo is that we haven't been concerned about it," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. "When we come out of earnings, people could look around and say, 'Hey, it's a small world after all'." But analysts agree that when it comes to a market correction, the Federal Reserve holds the trump card of higher interest rates. That's why investors will take a close look at a spate of economic data culminating Friday with economic growth figures. "The only week that is more important in terms of economic data is the employment figures week at the beginning of the month," said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Primark Decision Economics. "The focal point will be GDP (gross domestic product) figures on Friday with the employment cost index on Thursday almost as important." Ellis agreed that the economic boom cycle was getting old. "This has been a very long economic expansion and people are spending like it is just the beginning," said Ellis. "Spending is normal at the outset of a recovery. There is too much exuberance out there." Investors are keeping their fingers crossed that interest rates will remain low for a while. "It doesn't end till something happens to interest rates," said Jefferies' Hogan. "We have a broad-based rally. If we see a pick-up in demand, we could move to higher levels." Wachovia's Harrington said a correction is inevitable. "It's up 2,000 points in a few weeks. Any reasonable trader would expect a (pullback)," Harrington said. And Harrington said he was concerned that a correction would come "out of the clear blue sky." He added, "The catalyst simply will be you reach a point where sellers overwhelm the buyers."