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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary L. Kepler who wrote (6618)	4/26/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Yeah, it sure has been quiet here. We have all been distracted by the real world.... Nah, not nervous at all about the ICOS short, I just don't think it is worth $1.7B I'm willing to sit on GSII for a while, I view it as a long term play. Too bad they didn't get the treble damages though, it seemed deserved. It will take a bit for the market share increase to kick in. Nice product line and a management with a very long term perspective. The INCY lawsuit is a who knows when or what affair. I still think it will get settled when both companies get tired of shucking out millions to lawyers and they both realize the value of making an IP swap. I don't see a prelim injunction going anywhere. But, I don't see this as a make or break deal for INCY, it really isn't that big a piece of their business at this point, but they certainly see it as having a nice growth potential. AFFX however is completely dependent on the chip business, and thus has more reason to fight it out harder. Rman

To: Gary L. Kepler who wrote (6618)	4/29/1999 12:07:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9719

Gary, Been so damm busy it has been hard for me to participate much. I am closely following the portfolio however and and am very happy with its composition. INCY is oversold. It will have a nice big bump when the judge in the AFFX case denies the preliminary injunction. This should freeup micrarray sales. Apparently AFFX has sent a letter to INCY's customers saying that INCY's (Synteni's) chip technology violates AFFX's patents. Once the preliminary injuntion fails I believe chip sales will heat up quickly. I also expect a couple of deals announcing expansions of relationships with existing customers. GSII is so damm cheap that it is hard not to hold. They may have been denied trebble damages but they now should have a huge advantage in the balloon disection market. If they can't grow sales given the patent ruling they out to sell the company to someone who can. ICOS's value is way out of line with other biotechs and is a nice hedge for the portfolio. One slipup and they are looking at a 40% decline. Waiting for CLTR to commence its BLA is getting old. What I hear is that the company is saying that that the FDA wants the time between commencing a rolling fasttrack filing and finishing to be no more that 6 weeks. It would be nice if someone can confirm that. I still believe that they have a great molecule for NHL and that Bexxar will be a $300m drug in 2002. MLNM is the class of the genomics companies with top flight science, a tremendously leveraged business plan and huge funding. This is a stock you buy and forget. CGPI announced better that expected earnings and based on the latest Alex Brown report of a few days ago is already at an $11m run rate on Periostat sales. Very very impressive. SEPR is an enigma. Is it time to buy more. Peter S. if you are out there I would get your view. GZTC just announced that they cloned goats. This is huge because it potentially reduces the cost of creating transgenic animals. CELG is getting ready to explode. There is a lot of talk about angiogenisis. Thalidomid may be an early generation inhibitor of new blood vessels but it is approved (for effects of Leprosy)and is showing impressive results in a number of cancers and autoimmune disease. With expanded off label use based on published studies this could easily be a $100m drug within 12 months. Take a look at the CELG thread. it is one of the best on SI. Not overly verbose but very informative. V1