Updated: 26-Apr-99
Briefing.com Readers on the 1999 H&Q Conference
What a difference a year makes.
1998's Votes
Last year, just prior to the Hambrecht & Quist, or H&Q, Technical Conference, Briefing.com asked its readers to vote on companies they would like us to cover. Here is the list from last year, 1998, from about 350 reader requests. The percentage number represents the number of times a company was requested, out of all requests.
Lucent Technologies (LU) 18%
Sun Microsystems (SUNW) 15%
E*Trade (EGRP) 11%
Bay Networks (acquired) 10%
Dell Computer (DELL) 10%
Western Digital (WDC) and Texas Instruments (TXN) were in the top ten in 1998. America Online (AOL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Qwest Communications (QWST) did not receive a single vote last year.
1999's Votes
Here is the list from this year, from more than 1,000 reader requests.
Inktomi, (INKT) 21%
CMG Information Services, (CMGI) 14%
Yahoo (YHOO) 12%
Ciena (CIEN) 11%
@HOME (ATHM) 10%
This year Texas Instruments received only one vote and Western Digital received only two. Amazon.com, America Online and Qwest were all frequently requested, with Amazon.com being in the top ten.
The Shift
While our request certainly isn't a scientific survey, it does show an interesting shift in our readers' interest from the "old technologies" of the PC-technology world to the "new technology" of the internet information network. Here are some conclusions:
The Internet is where it's at: Just looking at the top five shows that. We would never have guessed that Inktomi would be the number one stock of interest among readers, even considering the positive Stock Brief we wrote on February 11, 1999. A full one-fifth of the requests received contained requests for Inktomi. This is especially remarkable considering that Inktomi has kept a relatively low profile for an internet stock. In fact, the popularity of the stock made us wonder if the recent strong price rise is attributable to the "word getting out" about Inktomi, more than business developments, such as their new ecommerce plan.
Chips are out: Except for PMC-Sierra (PMCS), which is a fabless chip design company for networking chips, chip companies hold little interest. Companies like Rambus (RMBS) and LSI Logic (LSI) were popular last year, being requested by 9% and 7% of all requests. This year, Rambus had only 6 votes and LSI only 3.
PC Boxes are on the way out: DELL, Intel (INTC), and even Microsoft (MSFT), all fell dramatically in reader requests, although they were still present. Even Gateway (GTW), a newer IPO, had few requests. DELL, in fact, was number five on the list in 1998, but was only requested 31 times out of 1000 emails this year.
Telecommunication is in: Qwest Communications (QWST), not mentioned at all last year, was in the top ten companies this year, with 8% of all requests asking for coverage. QualComm, (QCOM), popular last year with 8% of all requests, is still popular, again with 8% of all requests. Lucent Technologies, last year's number one pick, received only 8 votes this year. The sudden disinterest in Lucent is puzzling, especially since the stock's performance the past year has been good. Companies like Pairgain Technologies (PAIR), Advanced Fibre Communications (AFCI), and Global Crossing (GBLX) also received numerous mentions.
The Cases
America Online (AOL) received many votes this year. However, AOL is not presenting at this year's H&Q conference, nor have they in the past, and was not on the list of companies we published. The two companies do, however, have something in common. Steve Case, CEO of America Online, and Daniel Case, CEO of H&Q, are brothers. While it must certainly make their mother proud, the Cases apparently go out of their way to avoid any appearance of impropriety.
Attending the H&Q Tech Conference
Several readers asked how they could attend the conference. The conference is by invitation only, for clients of the investment bank. Clients are generally institutional investors who, generally, buy stock from H&Q IPO's, and trade through the H&Q brokerage services. When institutions trade very large blocks of stock, they often make use of investment banks to help close a trade.
Briefing.com is pleased to have been invited to attend the H&Q conference, on behalf of our readers.
Buy the AEA, Sell the H&Q
The two oldest investment conferences in the technology area are the Hambrecht & Quist, or H&Q, held in the spring, and the American Electronics Association, or AEA, held in the fall. Both have been held every year since the mid-sixties. They are the grand-daddies of the tech conferences.
There is an old adage among technology stock managers: "Buy the AEA, Sell the H&Q."
Certainly this strategy would have been excellent last year, as technology stocks peaked just weeks after the May 1998 H&Q conference, and bottomed out just one month before the AEA conference in the first week of November.
Whether that turns out to be the right strategy this year, of course, remains to be seen. |
