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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (57423)	4/26/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, What do you make of the steep drop in the growth rate of M3 as reported by A.A. in Barrons? If it continues to decline or even stays steady from here I think it's going to put my/our idea of a credit bubble in financial assets to the test within a couple of months. The stock market should start flattening out soon on its way to a decline and I suppose there should be some impact on bonds too. Any thoughts? WC

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (57423)	4/26/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: Alohal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB: Gosh you're smokin' this AM. How did you know us Dell thread folks don't read (or write, in fact we're just a bunch of illiterate fools, rich, but foolish none-the-less). Actually what we don't read are articles like the one your post links to. Indeed the story says nothing about sequential decline in PC shipments. But your answer actually begs the question. Given that Q4 to Q1 PC unit sales decline EVERY YEAR due to seasonality (you remember, that little bump in sales that rolls around every year about December, marked buy a frenzy of gift giving etc.), your figures, to have any credibility, should compare the decline to the same period in previous years. What exactly does an 8% sequential decline, (if indeed there is one) mean in comparison to previous years? Your original post said the decline was worse than expected. Expected by who? By you? By industry analysts? By IDC? Dataquest? By my reckoning, based on the IDC and Dataquest numbers, PC shipments in Q1 exceeded previous projections by them. I'm still searching for the numbers re prior years Q4-Q1 sequential sales. Perhaps this is a case of seeing the glass half-full versus half-empty, but so far I don't have enough data to justify even that benign a proposition. Regards and aloha.