To: Earlie who wrote (57473 ) 4/26/1999 6:48:00 PM From: Alohal Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Earlie, thanks for the reasonable and detailed response, I knew that if I persisted someone would actually answer my questions, even if it wasn't MB <gggg>. The evidence you cite for a PC slowdown, however, is subject to other interpretations, and this is where I think we differ. I would cite the same evidence to argue that what we see is not a slowdown, but a rapid consolidation within a maturing industry. We are seeing 25-35% revenue growth in a few companies as they move to dominate the entire sector. Even CPQ is now admitting that they have a company specific problem (boy, do they ever). As you and others have repeatedly pointed out, in a maturing industry rates of revenue growth must slow (law of large numbers being one main reason), so this is not a surprise. The most efficient companies in the sectors are emerging as the winners in this consolidation. Dell, GTW and IBM are set to continue to take market share from CPQ HWP and the white box makers. (Indeed CPQ might never recover, depending how quickly and how well they respond to the considerable challenges that lie before them, IMO there is a better than even chance that they will choke on their most recent acquisitions, but we'll see). Both Dell and IBM realize where the future seems to lie and are moving to occupy the services and cyberspace corners of the industry. (IMO IBM, CPQ and HWP should simply cede the manufacturing of their PC's to Dell and GTW who seem to be the only companies capable of making and selling PC's at a profit. (At this point, whether emachines can produce PC's at a profit remains to be seen, however, if they do you can bet that both Dell and GTW will be competitive and with a huge brand name and internet presence edge.)
