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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (192)	4/26/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: smh	Respond to of 52153

Even LGND up?!? My board mostly green today? Something must be happening.

To: Biomaven who wrote (192)	5/6/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 52153

Some new cash numbers.... some substantial burn occurring... and what's with ONXX, can that be right? Comp # Sh(mil) $(mil) $/shr Price Cap(mil) %$/Val 98'Exp* Revs* Burn Sales Sls/Exp Insidr REGN 31.00 $100 3.23 6 $186 54% 53.8 45.2 9% 15 28% 0.6 GLIA 10.1 $26 2.57 24 $243 11% 30.0 36.0 -23% 36 120% 0 CEPH 28.7 $60 2.09 12 $345 17% 74.6 15.6 98% 21 28% 0 CORR 24.4 $42 1.72 12 $293 14% 73.2 41.9 75% 33 45% 5 MOGN 15.0 $16 1.07 11 $165 10% 17.0 20.0 -19% 20 118% 0 MLNM 34.2 $202 5.90 36 $1,232 16% 139.0 133.7 3% 100 72% 0 INCY 29.3 $77 2.62 19 $557 14% 180.0 170.0 13% 175 97% 0 PDLI 18.6 $140 7.53 15 $279 50% 40.0 30.0 7% 15 38% 0.5 GLFD 19.6 $116 5.93 11 $215 54% 50.3 12.5 33% 6 12% 0.5 SIBI 9.5 $13 1.37 4 $38 34% 25.5 7.0 142% 3 12% 2.14 VRTX 25.3 $224 8.84 21 $532 42% 77.5 44.5 15% 5 6% 0 LGND 35.0 $53 1.51 10 $350 15% 87.0 25.0 117% 20 23% 0 PCOP 20.2 $40 1.98 10 $202 20% 105.7 92.2 34% 62 59% 0 PARS 37.0 $2 0.06 1.15 $43 5% 6.1 1.5 200% 1.2 20% 0.06 VLTS 19.6 $29 1.48 5 $98 30% 18.7 8.1 37% 0 0 CLTR 17.3 $116 6.71 22 $381 30% 40.0 34.0 5% 0 0.48 CELG 16.4 $13 0.79 17 $280 5% 28.0 3.8 186% 0 0.08 ALKS 24.9 $171 6.87 26 $647 26% 45.9 40.0 3% 0 0 AVIR 15.7 $79 5.03 19.5 $306 26% 56.6 1.0 70% 0 0 MEDX 31.3 $30 0.96 3 $94 32% 29.2 6.7 75% 0 0 GELX 16.0 $100 6.24 17 $272 37% 40.0 20.0 20% 0 0 PGNS 17.2 $65 3.79 13 $223 29% 62.6 61.1 2% 0 4.2 CGPI 8.6 $10 1.17 9 $77 13% 16.0 3.0 130% 0 0.28 NBIX 18.8 $56 2.98 4.25 $80 70% 28.5 16.0 22% 0 0.1 PCYC 12.3 $46 3.74 14 $172 27% 17.0 0.0 37% 0 0 ONXX 11.4 $7 0.61 9 $103 7% 30.6 9.3 305% 0 0.04 AXPH 30.0 $65 2.17 4 $120 54% 78.6 47.4 48% 0 0.36 TTP 13.1 $9 0.69 3.25 $43 21% 11.5 0.0 128% 0 0.2 ABGX 14.0 $57 4.07 13.5 $189 30% 21.0 3.8 30% 0 0 SNAP 10.7 $56 5.23 6 $64 87% 19.0 9.0 18% 0 1.6 NPSP 12.5 $40 3.20 7.5 $94 43% 23.4 3.6 50% 0 7.5 SUPG 20.4 $13 0.62 14 $286 4% 19.5 3.0 130% 0 0.3 OSIP 21.4 $22 1.04 6 $128 17% 28.0 19.5 38% 0 0.1 BTRN 8.6 $16 1.87 2.75 $24 68% 17.2 8.0 58% 0 0% 0 LKST 11.90 $27 2.23 9.25 $110 24% 23.8 12.0 45% 0 0.6 CTII 18.4 $12 0.65 1 $18 65% 22.3 8.8 112% 0 0.15 Revs & Exp in Millions ALKS 9 month data,SIBI lawsuit not included,LGND warrants not included. CEPH recent financing not included. Insider is $val in millions purchased by ANY filer in the past year @ mkt prices Sales is MY estimates for '99…. Feel free to "chip in" Please! Sls/Exp is my lame attempt to compare "sustainable" revenues to expenses,ie. 100% would supposedly be sustainable 0 Burn.

To: Biomaven who wrote (192)	5/7/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: Harold Engstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Peter, am coming over here for some advice and this looks like the properly-labelled forum for it. I really like Biogen (as you know) for its science, execution, and strong financials. But how do you value the company or a company like it? This morning it trades at $94/share; earnings are roughly $2.40 current and $2.02 trailing; book value is roughly $13/share; cash is roughly $8/share; growth rate has been roughly 50% for the past few years; projected growth rate is roughly 20% (although it was the same 4 years ago); pipeline is expanding; first new products start to emerge in 2 years. Personally, I'm not sure I would buy this company unless I knew it so well (at these prices). But, relatively speaking, it looks like a bargain compared to the rest of the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors. Amgen and big pharma seem pretty pricey and their growth rates don't currently match up nor do their prospects seem to have the same potential. I guess my question is, are these valuations in general something that can last? Are they valid? Can they be valid when the time horizon that people hold stocks for continues to shrink - if people are not thinking long-term, how can they buy stocks based on long-into-the-future earnings potential? So, do I buy more Biogen because it is undervalued relative to the market? Or do I sit tight and wait for the entire sector to correct to more conservative valuations? What do you think?