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To: H James Morris who wrote (52843)4/26/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
INTERVIEW-Can consumers save Europe's PC boom?
By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent
LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Computer manufacturers are
hoping that European consumers can save their sales boom.
Sales of personal computers have been bounding ahead, thanks
in part to a scramble by large companies to clear the decks of
old equipment which might be infected by the millennium computer
bug, and the need to upgrade systems to handle the changeover to
the euro.
According to market researcher Context, this might be coming
to an end shortly.
"We are seeing a closing of the Y2K and Euro boom and it's a
bit touch and go for the rest of the year," Context senior
partner Jeremy Davies told Reuters.
Earlier on Monday, Context reported that personal computer
sales in western Europe exceeded expectations in the first
quarter with a 20.5 percent increase to nearly 6.9 million.
This torrid pace compared with the fourth quarter of 1999's
22.2 percent, and 21.1 percent in the same quarter of 1998. But
information technology companies have been worrying that this
boom was induced by year 2000 panic and will soon dry up.
The millennium bug problem, otherwise known by the shorthand
"Y2K," prevents some computers from correctly recognising the
year 2000. When clocks strike midnight on December 31, 1999, the
worry is that computers programmed with double digit dates like
88 or 97 might crash or spew out flawed data.
Software giant Microsoft Corp <MSFT.O> warned in January
that the current European boom might turn out to be an
unsustainable, Y2K inspired bubble, but hoped that any slack
would be met by smaller companies belatedly coming to terms with
their Y2K needs.
Context's Davies reckons that smaller businesses and the
mass market consumer will come to the rescue.
"A lot depends on small and medium sized businesses and how
prepared they are for Y2K," said Davies.
He said the market's current success was being driven by
rapidly falling prices which was creating a new type of buyer in
a mass market. As PCs became cheaper they were becoming more
like commodities or mobile phones.
"A new type of market is being created here - the consumer
market. This could be a really exciting year if consumers drive
it, or it could shape up to be a bit of a disaster," Davies
said.
Davies said his previous forecast of between 17 and 22
percent sales growth for the year might be a slight
underestimate.
Last year almost 25 million computers were sold in Europe,
and increase of 21.1 percent over the previous year.
Davies said falling prices were making it extremely
difficult for manufacturers to make money. Companies like market
leader Compaq Computer Corp <CPQ.N> of the U.S. were expanding
into services to boost profit margins.
"A few are making money, mainly the Taiwanese that supply
the hardware, they are more or less OK. This is a very tricky
market to be in. If you're a manufacturer and your inventory has
not worked out well, you are in trouble," Davies said.