To: H James Morris who wrote (52843 ) 4/26/1999 7:50:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
INTERVIEW-Can consumers save Europe's PC boom? By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Computer manufacturers are hoping that European consumers can save their sales boom. Sales of personal computers have been bounding ahead, thanks in part to a scramble by large companies to clear the decks of old equipment which might be infected by the millennium computer bug, and the need to upgrade systems to handle the changeover to the euro. According to market researcher Context, this might be coming to an end shortly. "We are seeing a closing of the Y2K and Euro boom and it's a bit touch and go for the rest of the year," Context senior partner Jeremy Davies told Reuters. Earlier on Monday, Context reported that personal computer sales in western Europe exceeded expectations in the first quarter with a 20.5 percent increase to nearly 6.9 million. This torrid pace compared with the fourth quarter of 1999's 22.2 percent, and 21.1 percent in the same quarter of 1998. But information technology companies have been worrying that this boom was induced by year 2000 panic and will soon dry up. The millennium bug problem, otherwise known by the shorthand "Y2K," prevents some computers from correctly recognising the year 2000. When clocks strike midnight on December 31, 1999, the worry is that computers programmed with double digit dates like 88 or 97 might crash or spew out flawed data. Software giant Microsoft Corp <MSFT.O> warned in January that the current European boom might turn out to be an unsustainable, Y2K inspired bubble, but hoped that any slack would be met by smaller companies belatedly coming to terms with their Y2K needs. Context's Davies reckons that smaller businesses and the mass market consumer will come to the rescue. "A lot depends on small and medium sized businesses and how prepared they are for Y2K," said Davies. He said the market's current success was being driven by rapidly falling prices which was creating a new type of buyer in a mass market. As PCs became cheaper they were becoming more like commodities or mobile phones. "A new type of market is being created here - the consumer market. This could be a really exciting year if consumers drive it, or it could shape up to be a bit of a disaster," Davies said. Davies said his previous forecast of between 17 and 22 percent sales growth for the year might be a slight underestimate. Last year almost 25 million computers were sold in Europe, and increase of 21.1 percent over the previous year. Davies said falling prices were making it extremely difficult for manufacturers to make money. Companies like market leader Compaq Computer Corp <CPQ.N> of the U.S. were expanding into services to boost profit margins. "A few are making money, mainly the Taiwanese that supply the hardware, they are more or less OK. This is a very tricky market to be in. If you're a manufacturer and your inventory has not worked out well, you are in trouble," Davies said.