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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred B. who wrote (57507)	4/27/1999 7:57:00 AM
From: Mama Bear	Respond to of 132070

"Let's face it you can not predict a Dow of 5000(when it is at 8200) and not lose money when it is 10700 unless you don't follow up on that prediction." Well, I can think of more than a few ways one can make money. But since you think long or short the indices are the only possible positions to take, I'll leave you to your belief. You also assume that one who predicted that didn't have the sense to close positions initiated when it became obvious that the mania was back in full force. I'm always amused when folks seem to think a bear can't close a position. I shorted a stock from 6 1/8 to 3 1/2 last year. Recently, it hit 28+, and one of the bulls came out of the woodwork to taunt me because of all the money I had 'lost'. The really amusing think is the stock is back in the 7's, having been exposed as a P&D yet again. I humbly genuflect to 'a belief in America's economy and a belief in corporate america's ability to grow earnings' despite the fact that actual earnings growth has been anemic for the last several quarters. Barb

To: Fred B. who wrote (57507)	4/27/1999 10:48:00 AM
From: BSGrinder	Respond to of 132070

Re: "What you call "mania" and "insanity", I call a belief in America's economy and a belief in corporate america's ability to grow earnings." Manias and insanity are always rooted in belief. Belief that is not based on reality. The data shows that corporate profit growth is declining. Acting on the belief that the opposite is true is a defining example of "mania" or "insanity." /BSG

To: Fred B. who wrote (57507)	4/27/1999 11:08:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Fred, <<You seem to believe that because prices are up, that the bear thesis have been proven incorrect>> >Well the bear thesis of october 1998 has been indeed proven incorrect(and my portfolio is quite thankful!!). We will see about the bear thesis of may 1999 in about 6 months.< I can't speak for everyone, but value investors believe that the market does all sorts of nonsensical things in the short term. So the fact that it continues to rise is not a confirmation of the bullish case nor a refutation of the bear case. It is simply something to exploit. The same will be true at the depths of the next bear market. It is the long term values that should be debated. I am firmly in the bear camp on that issue (with some exceptions). Time will tell, not the next few months. WC