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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (6149)	4/26/1999 11:37:00 PM
From: Mark Madden	Respond to of 9256

It is my WAG that the oversupply was with the box makers. Several of them disappointed. Maybe they hit the seam between the Pentium III and Pentium II. Smart buyers may not buy before the Pentium III was released because the release cause an immediate drop in prices for Pentium II and Pentium I machines. The high performance people may have waited for the Pentium III.

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (6149)	4/27/1999 7:42:00 PM
From: Frodo Baxter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9256

I think you ought to be a lot more skeptical about Hutch. If it wasn't for their recent equity offering, they would hardly be in much better position than the rest of the HD junk food chain. Yes, they have first mover advantage, which they bought for a couple hundred million dollars in negative free cash flow. The jury is still out on whether that's a wise investment. You construct this scenario about demand fall-off caused by quarter end inventory management by the drive builders. I find this theory just weird. Yes it happens; balance sheet management happens every quarter. How can you possibly ignore all the warning signs about accelerating areal density, more low-end units, fewer components, emanating from EVERY company in this business? This year, there will probably NEGATIVE unit growth in heads, plates, and suspenders. Doesn't that scare you? It scares the heck out of me.