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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grantcw who wrote (1518)	4/27/1999 1:26:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 54805

>> Is this post considered off-topic? No way, Grant. That type of discussion is the primary reason we're here. Finding another Q is our top priority, and any candidate will have to get by a pretty tough screening committee - you and your threadmates. Keep it coming. Frank

To: Grantcw who wrote (1518)	4/27/1999 3:54:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

To Grant: I agree that UNPH is royalty not a gorilla yet. That is why UNPH is the One King in my three stock game. However, this is because unlike the Q, UNPH does not have a lock on an enabling technology such as CDMA. It is not because UNPH faces a "smaller market" - far from it. The two huge markets for data are wireless and fiberoptics. The Q is my candidate for the former, UNPH (once joined with JDS Fitel) for the latter. Fiber optics is a huge potential market and will most likely be the major terrestrial data carrier - on land and under water - (including video and anything digitalized) of the future. In the longer run, satellite wireless (Loral) and "wireless fiber" (NXLK,TGNT,WCII) are likely to be fiber's most important competition for transmitting huge quantities of data rapidly and efficiently. Satellite to any point in the world - including the "last mile" and "fiber wireless" short distances to buildings in urban areas primarily. Each individual does his/her own due diligence of course. Best. Chaz too

To: Grantcw who wrote (1518)	4/27/1999 9:35:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Respond to of 54805

Grant, RE UNPH. With broadband and xDSL exploding for years to come, the demand for more bandwith for all comm media will drive high, growing demand for more fiber. UNPH (/JDS) is the Gorilla in the fiber components market.

To: Grantcw who wrote (1518)	4/29/1999 10:30:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

To Grant Cain: Others here (such as Uncle Frank and Mike Buckley) are much more expert on gorilla vs royalty characteristics than I. For what it is worth though, the reason UNPH is the One King in my One, One and One game is that while I consider the market for fiberoptics components explosive going forward, UNPH has no lock on the production and sale of those widgets to my knowledge. I consider the merged JDS/Uniphase company as a king because that company will be pervasive in coverage for both active and passive components. But not alone. SDLI is a small company which also supplies components to all comers. As I understand, its forte is active components - especially robust pump lasers - increasingly used in underwater fiber where robustness is essential. And underwater fiber is growing very, very rapidly now and accelerating over the next couple of years at least. So suggest DD on SDLI. And in addition, my favorite telecom "base" companies NT and LU are very active in fiber equip supply. In sum, JDS/Uniphase looks to me like a potential king, not a gorilla. Chaz too