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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (6039)	4/27/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

MG, Re: Drugs and other Reading Material After thinking a lot about your post, the only term that came to mind was schizophrenia. However, it did take me a while to figure out how to spell it. <g> The word is thus defined: a major mental disorder of unknown cause typically characterized by a separation between the thought processes and the emotions ... I think that summarizes the issue fairly well. Fortunately, Mr. Market becomes schizophrenic on a regular basis. As long as we don't join in this disorder, there's money to made. Let's see, we still have to deal with the issue of churning. I like the definition that means: to produce by stirring vigorously. As long as I achieve my objectives, I don't mind expending the effort. BTW, I just see this all as a violent sector rotation. I'm going to try to post a Pivot Point analysis later on PFE -- talk about some damage done -- whew! TB (TM, RM is already taken on the SI threads)

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (6039)	4/28/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 11051

MG, Re: Pivot Points - PFE This will be part of continuing series (or until I tire of it) that tries to address what I see as the current entry and exit points and/or the method to determine them. PFE - Close 4/24, $121.125; 12/31/98, $125; Pivot Points $116. $121.50, and $127.50 Weekly Chart Analysis: MA, $115; HS, $120/$116; HR, $127; TL ? x $127 The stock action here lately should not be welcomed news for the superstitious kind of folks. The stock peaked 4/24/98 at $120 and 7/17/98 at $120.625. Anyone with any interest in the Market will recognize those dates as reflecting market tops. From 4/24/98 it took 6 weeks for the stock to bottom 17% lower. From 7/17/98 it took 8 weeks for the stock to bottom 24% lower (in all my charting I consider the Oct sell-off to be an abberation). Here we are again! The stock peaked 4/12/99 at $150. It has, thus far, suffered a 20% decline in 2 weeks! You will also note that it is negative YTD. This is for a company that at the end of February had the 6th largest market cap of all U.S. companies. The critical issue is this an entry point. In early 1997, PFE broke a fairly clear trading channel to the upside. The new trend line was about 90 degrees, which I consider to be parabolic. Further, history clearly reflects that parabolic trend lines, while they can last for a long time, cannot last forever. Let's just say that at this point, the weekly charts are not a reliable indicator. Daily Chart Analysis BASIC gave a sell signal 4/15 at $130. I believe that this will be a resistance level for some time to come. Further, a trend line from the 8/31/98 low has become resistance and will come into play about $127. The problem is what happened last week and the speed of this decline. It appears to this Dude that this puppy is going to have to retest that $116 level in the course of the next couple of weeks. In the meantime, it should be noted that we are sitting right above the two highs put in last year. Short Term Analysis: The foregoing was all quite difficult as I believe that PFE is, until proven otherwise, a SMM. If one had just played the 60 min sto, one would have realized a 28% return (without considering the use of margin) thus far in the month of April. This is not bad for a Big Boy that is negative YTD. In fact, for all but TM's new student, and his performance over the last week and a half, I think this return would be graciously accepted. Conclusion: I see no way to currently play this stock using any long or intermediate-term strategy. If you are inclined in that direction, buy MRK instead. But then, we play Bet the Bank and Ride the Wave. We will let others with more assets at their disposal get sucked up into the Asset Allocation and Diversification games. However, let's look at this issue realistically. Using the 60 min sto would have generated 2 buy signals and 2 sell signals in the month of April. This hardly constitutes anything close to day trading! As always, BWDIK TB