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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (21659)	4/27/1999 3:31:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 74651

Johnd, Is it heading below 80? Why is it down nearly 4 today? What are the support levels? 77 may be? This stock is usually quite predictable but has been quite the contrary since early April. I did not expect it to get to 88 yesterday. I think that surprising PC growth report did it. I would not be surprised to see 80 or low 80s. I think MSFT will enter the market with all that cash to buy back shares if that happens, providing support to the stock price. We might be stuck around 85 plus or minus a few points until late May or early June. Then I expect it take off in advance of the usual run-up to earnings. My guess is that lots of investors are going to try to jump on bandwagon a little earlier than they usually do---due to Office2000. Of course if there other market events that are unforseen at this time, that would change everything (such as escalation of Kosovo OR settlement with DOJ). BTW--Today's decline just appears to be a market related. However, MSFT gets hit harder than some other PC related stocks. This could be in advance of the re-start of the trial. Like I said a few times already, the re-start will cause the stock to go up (after the first couple of days of court).

To: johnd who wrote (21659)	4/27/1999 4:11:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Johnd, Another factor to consider is that MSFT has been using its stock as currency for purchases of new companies. Most of these companies appear to be connected to the internet. The company no longer says its stock is undervalued as they realize what this does when they try to takeover small companies. My feeling is that in the past their sole objective when making such statements was to ensure a steady price climb---good for employees and good for MSFT in making money from the equity puts. Their approach has changed IMHO. They want the stock to go up and will do what it takes to accomplish this--and will definately not consider talking it down like they did prior to this year. I would not be surprised if they make some sort of share repurchase statement in an effort to boost the stock price or to provide downward support. Shea Jones had stated that these things are voted at shareholders' meetings (unless i misunderstood). However, the MSFT board probably has the authority to make a decision like this---just like IBM made their announcement today. Given this shift in MSFT's approach, the stock may do better than I am predicting. What matters is how the stock performs in comparison to other companies. If it underperforms, Maffei will do something---either aggressive share-buyback or authorize additional buybacks depending upon the status of their share repurchase program. If a person is planning to hold for 1 year, I think this stock is a goldmine!!! BTW---Those that think MSFT has not manipulated its stock price in the past, are mistaken. They have sent so many signals to fool the investing public prior to summer of 1998.