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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pierre who wrote (57695)	4/27/1999 7:03:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Pierre: I will also be interested in MB's response to this one. I've been yapping about the Iridium situation for many months. My main worry was expressed as "SHOW ME THE CUSTOMERS", and yesterday's numbers sure provided evidence that I was on the right track. This stock has been more than kind to this bear cub. One never knows what MOT will do, but it is going to be expensive for sure. My guess is that they write off a bunch and take a powder. The Iridium shareholders have already taken it in the neck, but from my point of view, the stock is just entering my "mortally wounded" category which makes for low risk shorting. Lots of homework has to be done with respect to the activities of the debtholders, but usually, one gets several ways to play the emerging scene. Best, Earlie

To: Pierre who wrote (57695)	4/27/1999 8:36:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

Pierre, I have to preface this by saying that I have never managed a junk bond portfolio, so I may not be the best PM to ask. However, here is my opinion for whatever it is worth. Motorola and friends have two other options. They can offer bondholders equity in lieu of their bonds, a very common junk bond scam in the 1980s. Or, they can offer to redeem the bonds at less than par, with the threat to walk away if that is not agreed to. So, there are ways for Motorola to squeeze out revenues without paying bonds off at par. The question comes down to what is the investment and likely returns on Irdium worth to Motorola. It would hurt their prestige to walk away and they are not known as a sleazy co. But shareholders of the parent would not be thrilled about taking a hickey on this white elephant. So, the key is for somebody to figure out what Iridium is worth, if anything, and if that sum is worth Mot and others anteing up more. My suspicion is that they will try to perform CPR on this dead cat, but I could be off base.