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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TLindt who wrote (5036)4/27/1999 11:13:00 PM
From: zuma_rk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 20297
 
Tom --

Liked your example re: online brokerages, which reminded me of a somewhat-comparable company to CKFR, IMO, that was brought up awhile ago -- ADP (AUD).

This boring, sleepy company that perfected the art of payroll deductions, taxes and direct deposit (not to mention providing brokerage backoffice support and performing proxy mailings for many public companies) is a powerhouse among transaction based service providers. What do they have, something like a record of 10-years worth of consecutive double-digit growth in earnings or thereabout?

Anyway, I'm not here to hype ADP, just to draw the comparison to a company that perfected a processing model and was successful at building high barriers to entry to protect its franchise. The basic rationale becomes -- why bring payroll inhouse when ADP is so good at it, and provides it for a reasonable cost?

Anyway -- in times of doubt (like last August) this chart typically reinforces my long-term view of CF

finance.yahoo.com

Mind you, this is a FIFTEEN YEAR chart for ADP vs. the S&P. Dull, boring, but a wonderful, continual 45% slope upwards, and the damn thing STILL trades at a 40-plus PE. Anyway, don't rush out and buy any ADP based on my ramblings, but I think it makes for a reassuring comparison when we all sit back (myself included) and wish for that "surprise" 20% growth in subscribers.

Quality and execution are the only things that matter -- CF is damn good at it, and Microsoft (and most banks) aren't. It's that simple.

RK (IMHO, as always)