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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (12158)	4/28/1999 4:51:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>No such broad number of sell signals in the broad market or in the S&P 500, as can be expected from the positive breadth.<< Well we're getting closer IMO. I got weekly class 2-3 sell signals on the transports, CEX Chemical, FPP paper, and natural gas weekly charts and a matching signals on the GAX gaming. My stuff is often early but at least it shows we could be approaching the short term top soon. Couple these with my signals on the DOW and things could reverse down here soon. A couple of my earlier signals however resulted in flat charts so we may just stop climbing. My signals were designed for option trading with a bias for calls versus puts so they just get me out near tops when premium erosion will fade in flat trading and don't always result in down turns. I use the other indicators for that. I hope to update the weeklies more often but I am working some weird hours as you can tell with my lack of posting at normal times and then posts like this at O dark thirty mountain time. Hopefully I can get at least a few of them cranked out tomorrow. On many of the indexes, we are still near the lower tines of the forks so I don't expect too much downside in those. I am getting some more sell signals on individual issues now than in the last few weeks. Mostly DOW components etc and I have been noticing weakness in some normally strong issues. It could be more rotation as you said but I am thinking that there could be more to this and we need to pay close attention to what is going on. The formations on the oil index charts have turned out to be bullish flags and they are moving up again and the XAU gold/silver index bounced back up holding the middle tine. Looks like commodities, inflation etc could be heading up which would push the market down as discussed here recently and IBM just formed what could prove to be a nice island reversal as did a few of the recent fast moving techs. More warning signs I see is that many of the techs that tried to bounce back from Monday's sell off last week only retraced 50-60% of their drops which usually implies continued selling later. Out of all my individual issue charts, most of the first half still has valid forks that point downward instead of upward. When we were ina real bull market, almost all my charts had upward forks. I am just getting caught up so I have some more reading and charts to check. Good Luck, Lee