To: Bull-like who wrote (7539 ) 4/28/1999 7:25:00 AM From: BigKNY3 Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9523
Here's an opinion directly opposite to Cramer's. BigKNY3 TIP SHEET:Spears Benzak's Tuckerman Likes Big-Cap Drug Stks By Raymond Hennessey 04/27/1999 Dow Jones News Service NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The recent weakness in the share prices of the large-capitalization pharmaceutical stocks could present some buying opportunities for investors. The pharmaceutical sector "as a whole has performed terribly for the first four months of this year," said Lisa Tuckerman, portfolio manager of a biotech fund at Spears Benzak Salomon & Farrell. But the downturn in the stocks doesn't really reflect fundamentals at the companies, making it a good opportunity to get into the stocks, Tuckerman said. "I've been buying on this weakness," she said. Large pharmaceutical companies were trading at more than a 30% premium to the rest of the market in late December based on 1999 earnings estimates. But, while some technology stocks could sustain that valuation, drug stocks couldn't; their current premium is 16%. "It's tough to expect that kind of multiple expansion, so they took it a little on the chin," said Tuckerman, who is based in Bozeman, Mont. Drug stocks also have been hurt by the increased discussion by Congress of including pharmaceutical coverage in Medicare benefits. The fear among some in the sector has been that the decision would cause price caps, a fear Tuckerman said isn't warranted. Rather, Congress will most likely take the average wholesale price of a drug nationwide, then set a discount, she said. "While that's not ideal, it's manageable," she said. Finally, pharmaceutical stocks have been hurt by the rotation out of growth companies and into value stocks. But, while technology issues have rebounded, drug stocks haven't yet, she said. The attributes that make a particular drug stock attractive haven't changed since the sector downturn began, nor have they changed since about 1997, Tuckerman said. Investors should still be looking for the companies with the best new-product cycles and few drugs with patents that are set to expire, she said. In this regard, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) has a "product momentum that continues to be excellent" and American Home Products Inc. (AHP), though it has reported weak earnings, "has the broadest new-drug pipeline over the next 12 to 18 months," she said. Merck & Co. (MRK) has the biggest "perceived problems," with several drugs losing their patents over the next few years. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) is facing expiration for its patent of the depression drug Prozac, though a recent out-of-court settlement pushed the expiration date back to 2003. In the middle of these two groups, Tuckerman said, is Warner-Lambert Co. (WLA), which has a blockbuster in its cholesterol drug Lipitor, but has been dogged by safety concerns over its second-largest drug, the diabetes medication Rezulin.