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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (21866)	4/28/1999 8:11:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Ian, what numbers do you use for number of excimers shipped annually three years hence? The current annual rate is probably not greater 500 600, do you expect to see much more than tripling? If memory serves, CYMI's total capacity is 1000 lasers per year. If you assume 60 fabs conversion per year and 10 new fabs per year I doubt you'll get a count much in excess of 1000 per year, bu it might be a good exercise to estimate this number. I got my number by taking a total fab count of about 600, assuming 10% of these upgrading annually with 10 lasers each and assuming a peak new fabs rate of 15 per year with 20 lasers each and then adding a doubling factor so as not to annoy the perennial bulls on this thread. Even Curly's number of 1500 is smaller than my own top of 2000. The point I was trying to make and which is not addressed is that the to grow, CYMI will have not only to keep its current monopoly, but will have to expand its product line. From where they are, it is easy to see loss of market share rather than increase of market share (they already have essentially all of it), thus growth will depend on growth in conversion to smaller feature (which would probably be a bump rather than a steady year over year constant 50% growth for a number of years) and growth in Si real estate used by the industry. Growing on account of competition in its field is thus not an option, the other option is expanding outside its narrowly defined field. Thus the rational conclusion that a better deployment of the excess cash would in internal or external expansion of addressed customer needs, rather than acquisition of its own shares. Zeev