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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Jacobson who wrote (1559)	4/29/1999 12:03:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Eric, I don't know anything about Sterling Commerce, so no comment about that. The reasons Siebel is a gorilla candidate: 1)Owns proprietary technology fueling a discontinuous innovation. 2)Licensing revenue is twice as large as the two next largest independent competitors combined. It's impossible to determine the licensing revenue of ERP players and IBM's Corepoint subsidiary, but the general assumption is that all players are way behind Siebel. 3)Their value chain grows daily. 4) Siebel is the fastest growing applications software company in the history of the industry. For the record, Geof Moore recently wrote that all of Silicon Valley has conceded Siebel as the gorilla of the front office. If that's the case, it's the first gorilla that has not been spawned by a tornado, which is impossible according to Moore and his co-authors. I'm not ready to crown Siebel yet simply because they could stumble and because I haven't seen evidence of a tornado. The industry is still in the bowling alley, primarily financial services, consumer packaged goods, pharmaceuticals and telecommunications. f Siebel stumbles at the same time that chimps Vantive and Clarify soar, the hunt for gorilladom could take on new dimensions. But if I had to choose today who will be the gorilla, I'd have no reasonable choice other than Siebel. --Mike Buckley