Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger Bass who wrote (5070)	4/28/1999 12:52:00 PM
From: CAPT TONY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

CKFR: 3Q RESULTS SOLID AS SEQUENTIAL GROWTH PICKS UP 10:47am EDT 28-Apr-99 J.C. Bradford & Co. April 28, 1999 3Q Results Solid as Sequential Growth Picks Up Rating: Buy * 3Q EPS $0.01 better than forecast at $0.04 on 23.1% rise in processing revenue to $51.9 million * Sequential subscriber growth accelerates to 6%, driven by Web- based solutions, but number of banks currently in market slips from earlier forecast * Early stage of industry development demands increased investments; estimates lowered to reflect increased spending and risk of Y2K caused software-division slowdown * Stock is fairly valued on traditional measures; add to positions only on weakness *EPS of $0.04 was in line with consensus and $0.01 better than our estimate. Traction is clearly improving, with 30 banks now offering Web services and 20 more expected to go live in the June quarter. However, this is about 12% fewer than our previous expectation. Most of the banks that are up and running are not yet actively marketing the programs as they work through scaling issues. Billers are signing up rapidly with eight added in 3Q bringing the total to 49 (21 are live, 19 are in implementation and 9 are in queue). The competition has zero billers live. CheckFree's development efforts for its Internet distribution channel partner are complete and the portal is now testing and fine-tuning its infrastructure. We had expected a launch this month, but it now looks like June or July, which is a mild disappointment. We applaud management's decision to increase spending to take full advantage of its first-to-market position, but are nonetheless disappointed that we did not fully capture the revision when the portal deal was first announced in late January. We are lowering our 4Q EPS estimate $0.02 to $0.05 and our 2000 estimate $0.07 to $0.36 to reflect increased spending and to account for softness in software sales related to Y2K issues (4Q99 and 1Q00). On balance, we believe the shares of CKFR are fairly valued at the current price and would be more aggressive buyers on weakness to the low to mid $40s. CheckFree is clearly the horse to bet on in the EBPP race, but we sense another two to three quarters before the market really begins to accelerate.

To: Roger Bass who wrote (5070)	4/28/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: TLindt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 20297

>>>betrays ignorance about this space from someone who is, after all a portal analyst. Yea...all of that, and don't forget the part about being able to pick this up for $3 Billion. That's less then 1 x market 48 eight months out...if those other ANALysts are correct. >>>Also, saying that "It would be the most successful acquisition [they] ever made" Like I'll give you a box of beads and some trinkets for Manhatten Island...that would be the most successful acquisition [they] ever made too! But it ain't gonna happen....that's what we have middle fingers for.

To: Roger Bass who wrote (5070)	5/3/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: TLindt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 20297

I was just wondering how it reads with Yahoo! out and Intuit in place of your arguement.....interesting. Say Intuit went for the other 81%? Despite the enthusiasm here for anything that seems likely to drive the price up, the comments quoted here are as dumb as anything I've heard from any analyst for a long time. Specifics: 1) Intuit is a channel, a distribution business. Processing is way different as a business. 2) Exclusivity on a particular offer is, of course, a good thing from any channel's perspective. In processing businesses however, volume is critical. CF's viability would be seriously impaired as a 'captive' processor, for this reason, and even more seriously, since they'd be less attractive to billers if they lost distribution. Also, saying that "It would be the most successful acquisition [they] ever made" is just generally an idiotic thing to say about any acquisition until the real results are known. Reality is, about half of acquisitions are unsuccessful, especially compared to the hype that always accompanies them. And finally, the comment that CF is the "sole provider of online bill payment services", though it may warm the cockles of our collective hearts, betrays ignorance about this space from someone who is, after all a portal analyst. Goose/Gander logic.