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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JHalperin who wrote (43433)	4/28/1999 3:41:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Okay- official ''Demilitarized Zone'' - declaration here ! Hoo Hah !~ ....WOW ! I don't want to start off on the wrong foot again - but, yes I am selling into some strength again today - have to - just have to...(VBG). ...more than one road to the top indeed. Big Dog - still holding EEX ? - I had to sell 70% at 6 15/16 -$7 from the $4 7/8ths blow off - too much too soon. Will hold the final 1/3rd for drillng results. CRK - up 13% today partially gone as well. Hard not to sell UPR - still holding it - but an up 14% one day pop is hard to resist - untill you realize they are on track to surpass earnings numbers - where the stock sold at $20 ! - so holding... NOT raining on anyones parade - this is a celebration for everyone ! - I just will continue to ''Take SOME Profits'' ( I won't use the ''S'' word) on days like this-- I guess you had to be here in Sept - Nov to understand... if you are in cheap - this is too much to resist in many cases... - and more power & godspeed to anyone who buys & holds - no problemo ...can't have profit taking without new buyers. While I sold most of my OSX stocks on the intial top here earlier (and we still aren't over OSX 77 ). It worked for me - rotating into the E&P stocks & Integrated Oils; on what I viewed (imho) as a better nearterm fundamental move - as far as earnings were concerned. This tide has floated all boats. fwiw - I am holding FLC in a moderate position - missed a fill 2 times by an 1/8th . - going to ride the Falconeddie with what I'm holding here... I am large in PGO & still like it & RIG the best of all OSX stocks. Picked up only RIG PGO & HOFF on this retracement in the driller & service stocks - but caught very nice retracements in OEI, UPR & MRO - I basically shifted my earlier OSX profit taking into these and more CRK, PGEI, RRC, BELW, EPEX FXEN. CRK has been as my largest $ holding - often as much as 60% of my portfolio - taking profits again today - great trader and anything under $3 5/8ths becomes a tremendous longterm hold. Great analyst reports of late - their new liquidity will be a major catalyst. Rotation into the E&P's still imho - gives me the opportunity to show earlier quarter over quarter gains (perhaps within the next earnings reporting period) than the driller & service stocks. UPR had a nice earnings release and PXD as well is showing the turnaround of these high leveraged E&P's. These companies are reaping the rewards here bigtime & livetime. They do not have to wait for rig counts, dayrates or someone elses spending to loosen up - a no brainer still imho ! Another factor that I mentioned before is the positive ''financial enviroment'' for these high debt/leveraged companies to restructure. CRK & RRC have just increased liquidity, AXAS - a high risk play as well.... still losts of major upside action in small cap E&P land. As far as different roads - to the same destination; numerous E&P's up over 10% today - UPR is up 14% on a super earnings release - Q2 will be a huge upside surprise for E&P's folks - UPR's #'s were the first sign. IMHO - the E&P's can still ''spike'' off of actual bottomline/earnings surprises - while the OSX still must move on the forward expectations of future Cap Ex increases based on Oil Price sustainability. I do not care which way wins in the long run - I'll ride the drillers & service stocks with RIG FLC & PGOI and HOFF as my sleeper/laggard here - but, prefer to be loaded in the CRK's OEI's & UPR's - I'll still overweight this sector as imho; the fundamentals are overwhelmingly positive in comparison to the driller & service stocks - more upside and better actual fundamental support. - EARNINGS still matter in my opinion... Sarge - you crotchety old fa^! - I even hope you made money today ! - hold/trade your UFAB and I'll hold/trade my CRK - fair enough ? Now the $64 question is - do you continue to take ''some'' profits on either one day spikes like today - and/or on a stair step rise to the next trading range ? I'd be curious as to any analysis out there (not going to flame) on how we move substantially higher here between earnings periods. Does anyone think that the OPEC report May 10th can still be a catalyst to spike us higher yet - or is it allready a known factor and factored into both Oil and OSX prices ? Persoanlly - I am taking what I view as the ''hedged bet'' here - small positions in the values of the OSX (RIG & PGO) and heavy over-weighting to E&P's as there is literally no way I can loose here - if crude spike off of OPEC's announcemt May 10th - my E&P's will rally alongside the OSX and I actually have more substance of that fact falling to my bottomline fundamentals - E&P's make more money every day that Oil stays here than they did last year - the OSX runs only on ''expectations'' untill rig counts, dayrates and ultimately EARNINGS actually move - and they can NOT move - regardless of Oil Prices UNTILL the Oil Majors & Independants increase Cap Ex budgets... My arguement is NOT that they never will - this flamming of me as a ''Bear'' is ludicrous; my entire point is take the smart 'hedged bet'' today and ride the E&P's untill - Cap Ex spending increases, rig utilization/counts increase, dayrates increase - WHEN that happens - I'll rotate back into a heavier weighting on the OSX stocks... to me; the risk vs. reward is beyond comparison at this time in favor of the E&P's - however it will not be so forever - imho, the real move for the drillers & service stocks is yet to come... The time to plow headlong into the OSX with no looking back is: 150 GOM rigs at work 325 M boe, or less in US storage ...those will be the 2 primary catalysts imho. Good Luck and I don't care what any critics have to say - It AINT profit - untill you take it - and I will take ''some'' - everytime we see days like today - just wouldn't be prudent otherwise. Still numerous rotation ideas.... TCMS a ''popper'' today Mike H - kudo's - maybe OMNI awakens from its coma soon ? Hooo Hahhh ! ~ the cash register is ringing today ! .... and what still looks like a buy here folks ? I still like HOFF here fwiw and someone please pump my SEV up - still holding 1/2 position sold half at $5 - waiting for $7 for the rest (VBG) ...SargeK - hey, look into SEV for me will ya ? - couple of hundred posts should do it (VBG) ! ...:^