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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Duke of URL© who wrote (1404)	4/28/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: Enam Luf	Respond to of 3543

The analysts are keeping the run afloat by keeping their estimates conservative, allowing the companies to beat them, however the trading (daytrading) public doesn't have access to analyst models and thus isn't aware of the underlying assumptions. Hence I believe that the fall will occur due to the first quarter in which there is a sequential drop in revenues. Although I think 1Q:2000 will be the first non sequential growth quarter. I think that the stocks will move lower well beforehand probably soon after 4Q:99 (which should be a good quarter) is reported. Once it leaks out to the public that the 1Q:2000 forecast calls for lower revenue than 4Q:99.... that's when all hell will break loose... the move will be preceeded by higher than normal volatility as instituional investors bail out early. The big drop should occur during the first week of February, 2000 IMHO. EBAY will fall the farthest as I believe it lacks the management of AOL and AMZN (which counts for an enormous amt, IMO)and is trapped in the smallest relative market. AOL and AMZN may hold up better over the long run (meaning 5 yrs out....although I don't see near term growth from current levels). As long as AMZN is being subsidized with (essentially free) public monies, they may be able to get so large as to shut down potential barriers to entry and competitive threats. At that point, when critical mass is reached and very large economies of scale can be gleaned, profit margins will rise. However, even considering this, the price should still be chopped in half. -Enam