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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael r potter who wrote (2722)	4/28/1999 6:12:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Respond to of 4467

SFE has been in a tight trading range. I have viewed the technical situation as neutral, waiting for the market to tell me what direction the break would be. This is a very early call based primarily on the last two hours of trading action, but IMO the technical action indicates a break-down with an initial target being the 50 day moving average which is currently at $68-70. Would not bet on that holding. I would not take a further deterioration in SFEs price [probable at the opening tomorrow] lightly. I believe the serious down day in the Nets approximately 10 days ago, was wave one down. The recovery was wave two. Third waves are usually the most powerful so if correct, there should be a very sobering and sudden downdraft in internet stocks soon, probably accompanied by some near panic emotions on the part of those with an overweighting. Maybe this won't happen, but I would be on high alert for signs of this scenario unfolding and take it seriously. As we sweep into May, what will the new month bring? Could be showers [of margin calls] To be blunt: Not a time to be strung out on margin in high PE [or no PE] stocks. Mike

To: michael r potter who wrote (2722)	5/3/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

Message 2723 indicated a switch from short term neutral to a downward bias in SFE with an initial target the 50 day m/a at $68-70. SFE continues to go down in lockstep with the weakness in internet stocks while cyclicals/value continuing higher as outlined. The 50 day m/a changes slightly each day, now the # is $70 with that number moving toward $71-$72 by the end of the week. For now, I would use $70-$72 as an initial target. Microsoft is holding $80 by a thread, bears watching as the Nasdaq 100 [QQQ] would be headed for more serious trouble if MSFT fails $80. For the adventuresome, a short with a stop on that break could be a decent trade, or continue to look at the QQQ for short opportunities [especially if it breaks last weeks low around $104 1/2] against a long cyclical/value position. If the Internet stocks have a major and serious break, it would be preceded by a period of eroding prices which turns euphoria, to complacency, then concern and finally panic. Whether this current phase will go that far, remains to be seen, but the current environment remains dangerous for the groups outlined in previous posts until proven otherwise. Currently Dow +93, Nasdaq -20. OT. will discontinue posts for SWS $59, as it is now considerably beyond recommended buy point. Will mention again, if it should drop back down and technicals still look positive. Strong hold for now. Update: MSFT just broke $80 now $79 1/2, QQQ 105 3/4 Mike