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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (43457)	4/28/1999 5:43:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

BigBull, Natural gas in North America- some facts. First note that a series of electrical generating units will open for business this summer, helping increase demand for natural gas. Remember as these gas fired generators get fired (start up that is), that a new corollation between the weather and gas demand is building. That is- either a hot summer OR a cold winter will push natural gas demand in North America. Second many utility generating units can burn either oil or gas- at what point will a gas-fired unit switch to oil? Well it will take a prolonged potential BTU price differential between oil and gas- say for a 12-18 month period before a gas fired unit will be switched over to oil. That is because you do not simply change fuels and flip a switch to go from gas to oil. You must actually activate a series of parallel but integrated equipment skids just like a process unit in a refinery. That costs money and causes down time (loss of cash flow) in the generating unit. And this is not even talking about the air pollution requirements of various regulatory authorities... So power generating units do not switch easily between oil and natural gas. There has to be a pretty significant pricing differential between oil & gas to make that switch plausible to a utility....

To: BigBull who wrote (43457)	4/28/1999 5:45:00 PM
From: MARK BARGER	Respond to of 95453

FGI exploded today. That's the trouble with trading in and out of this sector, it's too hard to time the explosive moves up. Yes, there will be pullbacks, but who can ever tell when is the right time to sell or to buy back in. If I hear 1 more analyst tell me that this sector is short term overbought I will throw up. OPEC sees the fruits of their labor the last 3 months. They are not stupid (OK, let me qualify that, they may be dumb but they're not stupid). They only thing that could kill this OSX bull is massive OPEC cheating. It is not yet sexy to own this sector, but it is getting closer. The HUGE volume in FGI today tells me that at least some of the shorts are capitulating and seeing the writing on the wall. Good luck to all the cautious traders. I will view any further pullback as a chance to use some of the building up margin availability in my acct. Slider, do we pullback after today's massive gains, or do the doubters finally jump on board. It's only a matter of time before Wall Street jumps aboard. And no, even after today's huge moves up this sector is not overbought by any means. Most are still massively oversold. Mark